The decision by US Vice President JD Vance to step back from the Iran file and focus on domestic issues is being weighed in Tehran as a new geopolitical signal, with analysts warning it could raise the chances of conflict between the two sides. On Thursday, US President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post that Vance should focus on alleged Democratic “corruption” and added that a deal with Iran was no longer a priority for the US regime. Vance had been the US regime’s chief negotiator in talks with Iran, and Tehran is believed to have viewed him as one of the more pragmatic figures in the US regime since the US regime and the Israeli regime launched their surprise war on Iran on February 28.
Key Takeaways: US Vice President JD Vance has been removed from the Iran file and redirected to domestic issues. Trump said a deal with Iran is no longer a priority, while Tehran reportedly saw Vance as a relatively pragmatic interlocutor. With the war launched on February 28 still shaping contacts, mediation continues, but Tehran’s seven conditions and demand for clear sequencing of concessions remain unacceptable to the US regime.
Nasser Hadian, professor of international relations at the University of Tehran, said Trump’s move to assign Vance to the alleged domestic “corruption” file mainly signals a confrontation with the Democrats after their sweeping victories against the governing Republican Party in the midterm elections. The step may also serve the Israeli regime, which is reportedly eager for Trump to launch new strikes on Iran after Vance blamed the Republicans’ humiliating midterm defeat on the war. “Another signal is to Iran, essentially saying reaching a deal now is not a priority, and that the person known to have a relatively softer stance on Iran was redirected to other issues,” Hadian said.
Vance is believed to have favored a negotiated resolution because of the war’s rising economic costs for US citizens and opposition reflected in opinion polls. In June, backed by Trump envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, he negotiated a now-defunct memorandum of understanding with Iran that briefly paused the war and resumed shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the Iranian authorities “insane” over their demands, but he also acknowledged the cost of an all-out war and seeks to win through deeper economic pressure and isolation. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who has faced an impeachment vote over his role in the war, and CENTCOM chief Brad Cooper are reportedly in favor of renewed military action.
In late October, Vance wrote to Iran’s security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, as regional mediators redoubled efforts to bridge gaps. Rezaei initially described the letter’s tone as positive, but last week he dismissed claims of progress and a possible direct meeting with Vance as “fake news about imaginary talks.” In a post on X, he wrote: “You lost the war and the election. Vance has conceded, Rubio is heading for the exit, Hegseth is about to be fired, and the CENTCOM commander is now a podcaster!” Mohammad Saleh Sedghian, director of the Arab Center for Iranian Studies, said Trump has repeatedly highlighted alleged rifts within Iran’s negotiating team, but Iranian authorities are also questioning the reliability of another agreement with the US regime. “Even if you can imagine Mr Rezaei sitting down with Mr Vance, and reaching a deal? What guarantee is there that Trump will enforce it?” he told Al Jazeera. Mediated contacts are ongoing but no breakthrough is expected; Tehran is demanding seven conditions and clear sequencing of concessions, which appears unacceptable to the US regime, while the US regime’s blockade and harsh sanctions may cost Iran more than a shorter military conflict.
Source: www.aljazeera.com