According to forecasts from Uzhydromet and the World Meteorological Organization, temperatures in Uzbekistan in September 2026 are expected to be near or slightly above normal. The intensifying El Niño could impact global climate, but regional factors also play a significant role.
El Niño is rapidly strengthening in the equatorial Pacific. According to NOAA, there is a greater than 90% chance it will become a very strong event by autumn and winter 2026. This affects global atmospheric circulation and may lead to deviations in temperature and precipitation patterns in Uzbekistan.
The World Meteorological Organization's global seasonal forecast, released on July 31, predicts further intensification of El Niño in August-October, above-normal temperatures across much of the world, and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. These factors could increase pressure on water resources, raise agricultural water demand, and exacerbate heat stress for the population.
According to Uzhydromet's advisory forecast for September, average monthly temperatures across the country may range from +18°C to +25°C. Precipitation is expected to be between 0 and 5 mm for the month. Most of the country will see a drier September, while northern regions and parts of the Fergana Valley may receive near or above-normal rainfall.
In the first ten days, expect mostly clear and warm weather: nights 15-20°C, days 30-35°C, with some days reaching 37°C, and up to 38-40°C in the south. In the second and third ten-day periods, temperatures will be relatively stable: nights 10-15°C, days 25-30°C. Short-term fluctuations are possible.
September is typically one of the driest months of the year. Rainy days will be few, mainly associated with brief incursions of moist air in the second half of the month. There is a possibility of more precipitation in Khorezm region and Karakalpakstan.
Overall, September will not abruptly end summer but gradually transition to autumn. After a slight cool-down at the start of the month, weather will fluctuate, with longer warm spells alternating with brief cooler periods. From the third ten-day period, temperatures will drop noticeably, and rainy days will become more frequent.
Experts caution that long-term forecasts have low accuracy. For the autumn-winter season, no methods currently exist to provide forecasts with more than 60-70% accuracy for each month, so these predictions should be treated as advisory.
Source: www.gazeta.uz