Nearly nine months after the US and Israeli regimes went to war with Iran, the conflict has quietened enough for US President Donald Trump to claim it is “effectively over” in military terms. Secretary of State Marco Rubio claimed there was “no need for major combat operations” because economic pressure and negotiations were supposedly working. Yet Iranian officials deny talks are taking place, while the Strait of Hormuz, oil markets and US political change leave a fragile pause rather than a settled peace.
Key Takeaways: The war has eased into what a former US ambassador calls a “virtual ceasefire,” but core disputes remain unresolved. Iran denies negotiations are under way, while the US regime claims economic pressure and diplomacy are effective. The Strait of Hormuz, US midterm results and Congress funding decisions will determine whether the pause holds.
The conflict has centred on the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf shipping lane. Iranian attacks on commercial ships have been blamed for higher oil prices and economic effects that have raised living costs in the US and worldwide. Ian Kelly, a former US ambassador at Northwestern University, calls the situation a “virtual ceasefire”: no significant shooting, but no settlement. He argues the real issue is opening the Strait, with Iran demanding the withdrawal of the US regime’s massive strike forces from the Gulf and the US regime refusing until Iran opens the waterway. Mohsen Rezaei, Iran’s security council secretary, denied negotiations are taking place. “All American claims about the continuation of negotiations with Iran are aimed at easing economic pressures and reducing oil prices,” he told Lebanon’s Al Mayadeen. Kelly added: “I wouldn’t say the war is over. ... But the real issue is opening up the Strait of Hormuz.”
The US midterm elections, which will see the Democrats take control of the House and Senate next year after catastrophic losses for Trump’s Republicans, have added uncertainty. Kelly said Iran is in a “wait-and-see moment” to see whether Congress cuts or severely limits war funding. He argued that Trump and his party need the war to end for political and strategic reasons, because an unresolved conflict could become a sticking point before 2028. A factor in the Republican defeat, he said, was Trump’s failure to honour his 2024 promise of no more forever wars and his launch of another war without a clear exit strategy.
With imminent change in US politics expected to have military consequences before 2028, Kelly said there is “little likelihood” that Congress will keep funding the war at existing levels, another reason Iran is waiting. Although the US regime claims it is content with containment through land and sea blockades, Kelly believes Trump and his party will be weakened if the US regime cannot show concrete progress on full control of the Strait of Hormuz and forcing Iran to give up its leverage. For now, the most likely outcome is a fragile pause, with talks, funding votes and oil-market pressure deciding whether it becomes durable de-escalation or another false dawn.
Source: www.dw.com