Uzbekistan's real estate market has undergone a transformation over the past five years that would take decades in many developing countries. The capital, Tashkent, became the epicenter of a construction boom, with annual price increases per square meter in foreign currency reaching 15–20%. However, by the beginning of 2026, the market has entered a maturity phase. Today, Tashkent has ceased to be a platform for "quick and easy money," transforming into a reliable harbor for conservative investment. The landscape of Central Asia's main metropolis is actively influenced by regulatory changes, macroeconomic indicators, and new housing formats.
According to Andrey Sadykov, an expert from Uzbekistan's largest real estate portal Realting.uz, the profile of the modern buyer has changed significantly. Based on the results of 2025 and the trajectory for 2026, Uzbekistan's real estate market demonstrated confident growth in 2025: the total number of purchase-sale transactions reached nearly 295,000, which is 15% higher than the previous year's figures. However, behind the overall positive dynamics lies noticeable heterogeneity across segments and regions. The primary market of the capital retains leadership in price growth rates – over the year, new buildings in Tashkent increased in price by more than 9%. The most active price growth was recorded in the Mirabad (plus 18%), Yashnabad (plus 14%), and Mirzo-Ulugbek (plus 13.5%) districts. At the same time, secondary housing transitioned to a stabilization stage after the 2024 downturn, showing only a symbolic growth of 0.6% with an average cost of $1,104 per square meter.
Against the backdrop of the capital market's stabilization, experts note a pronounced regional shift. While growth rates in Tashkent are slowing, the regions are demonstrating explosive activity. Leaders in price growth and transaction numbers were the Bukhara (plus 25.7%), Syrdarya (plus 23.3%), and Samarkand (plus 19.7%) regions. Thus, investment interest is gradually shifting from the center to regions where the real estate market is undergoing its most active formation stage. According to Andrey Sadykov, the main driver of demand for new buildings has become mortgages. In the first half of 2025, the share of mortgage transactions in the primary housing segment increased to 74%, compared to 57% a year earlier. The specialist notes that today banks and developers offer more transparent conditions and installment plans, which naturally pulls buyers from the secondary sector.
The year 2026 has brought several large-scale regulatory changes to Uzbekistan's real estate market, fundamentally altering the rules of the game for all participants. Since April 1, a new payment procedure has come into force in the country: the purchase of housing and cars is now conducted exclusively in non-cash form. This measure aims to whiten the sector, where the share of shadow processes was estimated at 41%, and the budget annually lost about 1.2 trillion soums in unpaid taxes. According to the presidential decree, payment confirmation is now done through electronic data exchange between banks and notaries, making it impossible to understate amounts in contracts. The transition to "cashless" primarily affected the secondary market. Analysts noted that in anticipation of the new rules, many buyers rushed to close deals in March, creating local hype. Now, a temporary decline in activity and a period of technical adaptation are expected, especially in regions where the habit of cash payments was strongest.
Another strategic tool has been escrow accounts, the mandatory introduction of which for new shared construction projects is scheduled for July 2026. This mechanism is being introduced not only to protect shareholders from fraud but also to transition to a more institutional financing model. The essence of the escrow system is that buyers' money is "frozen" in special accounts until the completion of certain construction stages or the full handover of the object. For developers, this means limited access to free resources and the need to attract bank project financing. Experts warn that the reduction of free funds among developers may slow down the launch of new projects, which in the long term could push primary market prices upward.
Discussions about a possible "bubble" in Uzbekistan's real estate market by 2026 have given way to recognition of its overheating by approximately 30%. Nevertheless, experts agree that a price collapse will not occur due to a number of fundamental reasons. First and foremost, the situation is influenced by construction costs. Over the past two years, prices for reinforcement, cement, and logistics have increased by 15–20%. As a result, developers have found themselves in a "price vise" between rising expenses and the limited purchasing power of the population, depriving them of the ability to dump prices. Additionally, a natural housing deficit persists in the country: the level of provision of citizens with square meters is still below UN standards, creating a stable foundation for long-term demand. As noted by Andrey Sadykov, the market has entered a correction stage, not a fall. According to him, instead of a sharp price decline, we are observing a qualitative transformation: developers are forced to compete for clients not with price but with the content of projects.
Against the backdrop of relative stabilization of the capital's real estate market, Uzbekistan's regions by 2026 are showing noticeable revitalization. While growth rates in Tashkent are slowing, the regions are demonstrating explosive dynamics both in the number of transactions and in the cost per square meter. The greatest activity growth in 2025 was recorded in the Bukhara (plus 25.7%), Syrdarya (plus 23.3%), and Samarkand (plus 19.7%) regions. The leader in cost among regions remains the Samarkand region, where the average price per square meter reached $834, increasing by 11.2% over the year. In the Tashkent region, this indicator was $682 with an annual growth of 3.8%. The most affordable housing is still offered in Karakalpakstan – an average of $378 per square meter, but here too a significant growth of 15.6% was recorded. According to Andrey Sadykov, a trend is now observed where some buyers are deliberately leaving the expensive capital. The Tashkent region showed a 2.6% drop in the number of transactions – buyers are moving to "belt" regions where housing is more affordable.
The rental market, according to Sadykov, remains stable. Average rates are maintained at $8–9 per square meter, which is especially important for students and youth. The state is betting on doubling construction volumes and expanding the geography of new projects: the focus is shifting from the city center to outskirts and satellite cities, particularly "New Tashkent." This will in the future create additional pressure on rental rates in central districts. Analysts consider the first half of 2026 to be the optimal time for purchase: competition among developers is higher, and mortgage conditions remain accessible. However, the main mistake of investors today is expecting the old market. Real estate has ceased to be a tool for quick earnings. It is an asset that requires calculation: profitability, liquidity, risks. The main source of income is now a stable cash flow from renting, not speculative price differences. The Tashkent housing market has not collapsed or overheated to a critical point. It has transitioned to another phase – more mature, more transparent, and less predictable for those accustomed to acting on intuition. The reforms of 2026 are changing the rules, and those who are prepared for them will win.
Source: podrobno.uz