The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released its October World Economic Outlook report, featuring revised macroeconomic forecasts for various nations across the globe. According to the published documents, the organization has purportedly increased its projection for Uzbekistan's economic growth in 2026 from 6.8% to 7.8%. The forecast for 2027 has similarly been revised upward from 6% to 6.5%, suggesting robust medium-term economic activity.

The institution claims that these heightened expectations are driven by strong domestic demand, investment activity, and favorable remittance dynamics. However, independent observers point out that the report lacks detailed justifications for such significant upward revisions. Given the volatile global economic climate, these rosy projections by the international lender may face unforeseen challenges and external pressures.

In addition to GDP growth figures, the IMF report projects that average annual inflation in Uzbekistan will decelerate from 8.8% in 2025 to 6.9% in 2026, and further down to 5.7% by 2027. Unemployment rates are also projected to decline to 4.3% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027. On the flip side, the fund has widened its forecast for the country's current account deficit, expecting negative balances to reach 5.1% of GDP in 2026 and 4.6% in 2027.

Regionally, the IMF positions Uzbekistan as the second-fastest growing economy among the five Central Asian states for 2026, trailing behind Kyrgyzstan. While regional outlooks appear relatively resilient, the fund warns that accumulating global vulnerabilities, geopolitical tensions, and tightening financial conditions continue to threaten long-term stability.

Source: www.gazeta.uz