The International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission has released its concluding statement following a visit to Uzbekistan. According to the report, in 2025, Uzbekistan's real GDP growth reached 7.7%, the unemployment rate fell to 4.8%, and inflation slowed from 9.8% to 7.3%. The current account deficit narrowed to 3.9% of GDP.

For 2026, the IMF has raised its real GDP growth forecast from 6.2% to 6.8%, citing ongoing reforms, sustained investment, high remittance inflows, and rising gold prices. However, the inflation forecast was also increased from 6.5% to 6.8% due to higher oil prices amid the Middle East conflict.

The IMF report states that inflation could decline to the central bank's target by 2027, supported by tight monetary policy, continued structural reforms, and lower oil prices. The Fund emphasizes the critical need for a medium-term revenue strategy to fund healthcare, education, and infrastructure needs for Uzbekistan's rapidly growing population.

On fiscal policy, the IMF recommends phasing out tax exemptions, increasing excise taxes, and ensuring a reduction in the tax-to-GDP ratio. These measures should be complemented by reforms in tax administration and customs systems. The report also warns that while the direct impact of the Middle East war is limited, a deterioration in the global economy could severely affect Uzbekistan's key trading partners through indirect channels.

Source: kun.uz