Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's PR skills have earned him a reputation as a genius acknowledged by both friends and foes. US President Donald Trump called him "the greatest salesman on Earth," while New York Times columnist David French portrayed him as "the new leader of the free world."
However, Zelenskyy's PR genius can do little to change the dynamics on the battlefield in the Russia-Ukraine war. In recent weeks, his administration and allies have tried to create the impression that the war is approaching a turning point, but realities on the ground tell a different story.
Official claims that Ukraine made more territorial gains than Russia in February are disputed. Some pro-Ukrainian monitoring platforms support these claims, others do not. Calculations are tricky due to an extensive grey zone along the frontline where control is unclear. Gains are measured at 150-200 square kilometers per month.
In reality, there is no significant change in battlefield dynamics that have been in place for at least two years. Russian troops are besieging industrial cities in northern Donetsk region. Their advances along the northern border extend the active frontline by hundreds of kilometers, exacerbating Ukraine's personnel shortages.
Four years into the war, the Ukrainian army has resorted to brutal campaigns to enforce mandatory conscription, pulling young men off the streets. Russia, meanwhile, continues to lure volunteers with lavish compensation.
Ukrainian officials claim Russia is losing more troops than it can recruit, based on dubious casualty data. Zelenskyy stated Russia suffered 35,000 casualties in March, but his own Defense Ministry claimed 48,000 in January 2025. Budanov acknowledged that the collapse of Russian mobilization is not forthcoming.
Ukraine is waging a successful drone campaign against Russian oil facilities, but this is unlikely to change anything beyond providing dramatic footage. In April, Russian oil revenues surged to $9 billion, equivalent to 10% of the EU loan to Ukraine.
Russia's economy has suffered, but its GDP per capita (PPP) exceeds that of less affluent EU countries like Romania and Greece. Ukraine's is on par with Mongolia and Egypt.
Western media seize on every news of "cracks in the regime" in Russia, but the regime is far from collapse. This narrative distracts Ukrainian and EU citizens from the painful truth that the war is heading towards a deadlock or Ukraine's collapse.
German Chancellor Merz suggested Ukraine may have to cede territory to Russia. EU defense chief Kubilius ruled out NATO membership. The main bargain is between Zelenskyy and his Western allies, not with Putin.
Ukrainian parliament fiscal committee head Hetmantsev called on European officials to stop seeing Ukrainians as "a tool for solving someone's geopolitical tasks." Zelenskyy, dogged by corruption investigations, holds no cards to play against Russia or the West.
Source: www.aljazeera.com