Despite recent talks between Israel and Lebanon, experts see little hope for a positive outcome, and locals in southern Lebanon, who are most affected by the conflict, share this pessimism.

In mid-April, historic talks took place in Washington for the first time since 1993. Officially, the two nations have been at war since 1948. However, fighting continues in southern Lebanon, with Hezbollah's military wing firing rockets into Israel and Israel bombing southern Lebanon and establishing a so-called "security buffer zone," which critics call an occupation.

Hanna Voss of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation's Beirut office notes that Hezbollah is not involved in the talks, limiting chances of success. Hezbollah, deeply embedded in Lebanese society, refuses direct negotiations with Israel.

Experts also highlight the power imbalance. "The talks are taking place in an environment characterized by imbalances," says analyst Hussein el Mouallem. The Lebanese government lacks leverage, while Hezbollah acts independently.

Israel and the US demand Hezbollah's disarmament, but this could destabilize Lebanon. External pressure is also strong: the US supports Israel, while Iran pursues its interests through Hezbollah.

Locals in southern Lebanon, like Hanaa Zalghout and Ahmad Ismail, have little hope. "I will only ever see my home again in my dreams," Ismail laments. Israel demands Hezbollah fighters withdraw north of the Litani River.

Observers suggest Israel may use security as a pretext for territorial changes. Finance Minister Smotrich has raised the possibility of territorial reorganization, and Prime Minister Netanyahu has not ruled out a long-term military presence.

Source: www.dw.com