Nearly four months after the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran, the two sides are holding talks in Switzerland with a 60-day ceasefire and framework for negotiations on Iran's nuclear programme, sanctions relief, and the future of the Strait of Hormuz.
While a lasting deal could ease economic pain, the conflict has proven immensely profitable for some sectors. Defence contractors, oil and gas producers, and investment banks have seen profits soar as war and uncertainty upended global markets.
The energy sector benefited most directly. Before the war, about one-fifth of the world's oil and LNG passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Disruptions sent crude prices soaring, with Brent briefly touching $126 a barrel. Prices have since dropped to pre-war levels of about $72.
Saudi Aramco's first-quarter profits rose 25% to $32.5bn. BP's profits more than doubled to $3.2bn. Shell reported $6.9bn, and TotalEnergies $5.4bn. US LNG firms like Venture Global and Cheniere Energy are also well positioned as buyers seek secure supplies.
Defence contractors also gained. After the strikes, heads of major arms makers met at the White House and agreed to ramp up production. Boeing's revenue climbed 14% to $22.2bn, while Northrop Grumman's order backlog hit a record $95.6bn.
Shipping and insurance companies profited as well. War-risk premiums for transiting the Strait of Hormuz surged fivefold. Tanker operators Frontline and DHT Holdings saw revenues rise sharply.
Wall Street banks earned nearly $48bn in combined profits in the first quarter. JPMorgan's profits rose 13% to $16.5bn, with strong gains from fixed income, currencies, and commodities trading.
The conflict also sparked insider trading scandals on prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi. In March, $580m in oil futures flooded the market minutes before Trump announced a pause in strikes. In April, over 50 new accounts bet on a ceasefire before its official announcement. A Yale analysis found suspicious accounts winning nearly 70% of bets, with estimated profits of $143m.
Source: www.aljazeera.com