A new armed alliance seeking to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has been formed in Ethiopia, following a pattern that has plagued the country for decades. Those in power leave little space for peaceful political struggle, so those who feel disadvantaged take up arms. Actors and alliances change, but violence remains the only constant.
Civil war continues in Oromia and Amhara, while the Pretoria agreement in Tigray remains unimplemented. The government controls the centre with drones and ground forces. It held national elections and formed a National Dialogue Commission, though armed groups and key opposition were absent. Major development projects continue, including the Ethiopia-Djibouti petroleum infrastructure project.
The Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, announced on September 20, was not a surprise. It followed months of coordination meetings with military and security representatives from Eritrea and Sudan. The alliance includes the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the Amhara Fano National Movement, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), and four movements from Somali, Afar, and Benishangul-Gumuz regions. It aims to remove Abiy Ahmed and establish an inclusive transition.
Three days later, TPLF forces, allied with ANURF, advanced into several districts in Zone 2 with little resistance. ANURF is led by Ibrahim Osman Aliyu (Haji Ibrahim), who defected to Eritrea last year with Afar Special Forces. In a message to the Afar people, he stated the fighting is against the Prosperity Party, not the Afar people. Their next target may be the vital highway linking Ethiopia to Djibouti.
A similar alliance in 2021 quickly fragmented. The new alliance includes Fano, who previously fought alongside the federal government against the TPLF and now fight Abiy. Disagreements persist over western Tigray. No organisation speaks for all it claims to represent. Militarily, simultaneous fighting across distant regions is not a single campaign.
Eritrea is accused of backing the alliance, though Asmara denies it. External support could strengthen factions but also make them unacceptable to other Ethiopians. Three paths seem possible: prolonged conflict, alliance fragmentation, or a cascade of defections and coordinated rebel advances. Even a rebel takeover would be an unconstitutional change of government under African Union rules and face regional opposition. Removing Abiy would settle none of the arguments over land, command, and constitutional power. Victory could open another civil war.
Source: www.aljazeera.com