Germany's Social Democratic Party (SPD), the country's oldest political force, is facing an existential crisis as it grapples with historically poor electoral performances. In the recent state election in Baden-Württemberg, the SPD barely crossed the 5% threshold for parliamentary representation with just 5.5% of the vote, marking its worst result in post-war history. This setback is part of a broader trend: since 2021, the party has recorded single-digit results in four other federal states, while at the federal level, its support has languished between 13% and 16%.

Once a 'big tent' party that attracted nearly half of German voters, the SPD has lost touch with its traditional base—the working class. According to a Forsa poll from November 2025, only 9% of blue-collar workers and the unemployed intend to vote for the SPD. Those feeling socially disadvantaged now lean toward the far-right populist Alternative for Germany (AfD), which secured 38% of the working-class vote in the 2025 general election, as per an infratest-dimap survey. Additionally, many former SPD voters have shifted to the socialist Left Party, formed partly in response to dissatisfaction with the social welfare policies under Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's SPD-Green coalition (1998-2005).

Schröder's 'Agenda 2010' reforms, which cut state social benefits, relaxed employment protections, and expanded the low-wage sector, boosted the economy but sparked internal rebellion within the SPD, leading to the loss of nearly half its voters over a decade. Later, in grand coalitions with the CDU/CSU (2005-2021), the SPD made numerous compromises, blurring its ideological distinctiveness and making it difficult for voters to differentiate its policies from those of the conservatives.

In the 2021 federal election, the SPD unexpectedly emerged as the strongest party with 25.7% of the vote, and Olaf Scholz became chancellor. However, the three-way coalition with the Greens and the neoliberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) was hampered by massive infighting, collapsing after just three years and further damaging the SPD's reputation. In the 2025 election, the party secured only about 16%, prompting Forsa institute head Manfred Güllner to speak of an 'existential threat' to the SPD.

In 2025, the SPD re-entered government as the junior partner in a coalition led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU/CSU, putting the party at risk of again failing to define its own profile. Under Merz, the CDU has shifted significantly to the right, planning major reforms to the welfare state, pension system, healthcare, and elderly care amid empty state coffers and a weak economy. The SPD, while acknowledging the need for some measures, has demanded a more humane approach, but its ability to enforce left-wing social policies against its coalition partner remains limited.

The federal government, attempting to avoid open disputes ahead of upcoming state elections, appears increasingly paralyzed in domestic policy. Political observers expect that the results of the March elections in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate could increase pressure within the SPD to distance itself from the CDU/CSU at the national level, particularly if the party loses power in these states.

Source: www.dw.com