The United States Department of Justice has filed criminal charges against an active-duty soldier for allegedly placing bets on the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro using classified military information for personal profit. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, 38, is accused of making over $400,000 through the prediction market platform Polymarket.
Prosecutors claim Van Dyke placed 13 bets on topics including whether US forces would “invade” Venezuela and when Maduro would be removed from office. FBI Assistant Director James C. Barnacle Jr. stated, “Gannon Ken Van Dyke allegedly betrayed his fellow soldiers by utilizing classified information for his own financial gain.”
Van Dyke faces three counts of violating the Commodity Exchange Act, one count of wire fraud, and one count of unlawful monetary transaction. Each commodities fraud and unlawful transaction charge carries up to 10 years in prison, while wire fraud could result in up to 20 years.
Prediction markets have expanded under the second presidency of Donald Trump, with administration officials and Trump’s son maintaining ties to the industry. In May 2025, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission dropped its legal fight against Kalshi, allowing bets on political events. Critics fear insider trading by government officials.
Large bets ahead of the US attack on Venezuela on January 3, 2026, raised red flags, with media reporting on a “mystery trader.” The indictment alleges Van Dyke created a Polymarket account around December 26, 2025, using a VPN to mask his location. He placed bets ranging from $96 to over $7,000 in the days leading up to the operation.
On January 3, the US launched “Operation Absolute Resolve,” resulting in the abduction of Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, and dozens of casualties. Van Dyke, based at Fort Bragg, allegedly had access to classified information about the operation. After his windfall, he transferred funds to a foreign crypto vault and requested account deletion on January 6.
The charges carry severe penalties, with wire fraud alone punishable by up to 20 years in prison. The case highlights growing concerns about insider trading on prediction markets, especially following Kalshi’s recent suspension of three users who allegedly bet on their own election races.
Source: www.aljazeera.com