A series of coordinated attacks by armed groups across Mali has exposed security vulnerabilities in the military-ruled country, analysts say.
Since gaining independence from French rule in 1960, the West African nation has navigated cycles of political instability, punctuated by persistent attacks from armed groups, military coups and financial crises.
As French and international security operations leave the region, the rising influence of Russian mercenary groups over the past two years has signalled further security risks and rising violence.
On Saturday, an al-Qaeda-linked group, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) claimed responsibility for attacks on military sites across the country, including in the capital, Bamako. JNIM said it had “captured” the city of Kidal in the north in a coordinated operation with the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), a Tuareg-dominated rebel group.
On Sunday, a military source told Al Jazeera that Mali’s Defence Minister Sadio Camara had been killed during the attacks.
Speaking to Al Jazeera, Mathias Hounkpe, the International Foundation for Electoral Systems’ country director for Mali said “If they [armed groups] were able to cover almost the whole country in one day, it means there are security vulnerabilities in the system.” He added, “They have also been able to reach the city of Kati, where the president and other important ministers live. That is the centre of power and them having reached this point through attacks means the government’s ability to secure the country is weak.”
Since 2012, the security situation in Mali has been murky, with several separatist groups fighting against the government, instigating coups and killing dozens of people in north and central Mali.
JNIM is one of the most active armed groups in the region, formed in 2017 as a coalition between the Saharan branch of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and Malian armed groups – Ansar Dine, Al-Murabitun and Katiba Macina. The group has about 10,000 fighters and is led by Iyad Ag Ghali, who founded Ansar Dine in 2012.
In 2022, JNIM attacked the Malian army base in Kati, close to the capital, Bamako. In September 2024, the group attacked the capital’s airport and an elite police training academy, killing dozens.
In the north, the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), a Tuareg-dominated rebel group formed in 2024, has been fighting Mali’s military government and Russian forces, seeking an independent and autonomous region of Azawad.
These two main alliances have different goals – one aims to impose a strict interpretation of Islamic law across Mali, the other fights for an independent region. Their relationship is fluid, with FLA and JNIM regularly opposing each other’s ideologies and fighting for territorial control.
However, they have also previously partnered to fight common enemies, namely Mali’s government and its allies. In July 2024, FLA coordinated with JNIM to launch an ambush on an army convoy in Tinzaouaten, resulting in Malian and Russian casualties.
The current military government ruler, Assimi Goita, has been in power since a military coup in 2020 and has been responding to security tensions, especially in the north, with help from Russian mercenaries.
Ulf Laessing, head of the Sahel Programme at Germany-based Konrad Adenauer Foundation, said, “The situation in the North remains difficult. The government has lost Kidal, which is a Tuareg stronghold and I don’t think the government can control it again any time soon.”
Hounkpe said the government will need to focus on maintaining citizens’ trust. “Governments in the Sahel region survive primarily if they are supported by their citizens. Currently, Mali’s military government has been relatively quiet about why or how Saturday’s attacks took place.”
The African Union, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation and the United States Bureau of African Affairs have all condemned the attacks. Last year, Mali, along with Niger and Burkina Faso, formally split from the West African regional bloc ECOWAS to form the Alliance of Sahel States (AES).
Laessing said AES countries are all in weak positions. “They are all fighting extremist armed groups and none of them has troops to spare. So I’m sceptical that they can offer much support.”
Troops from European nations, primarily France, had been helping Mali fight unrest for more than a decade. But in 2023, they withdrew following a breakdown in relations with Mali’s military government and the country’s growing alliance with Russia.
In December 2021, Goita had invited Russian mercenaries to support the military administration in its fight against armed groups after asking French troops to leave the country. In June last year, Russia’s Wagner group said it would withdraw from Mali, but Russian fighters have remained under the banner of the Africa Corps.
Laessing noted, “The Malians certainly want the Russians to stay. But the Russians are a bit reluctant to get too involved in the war because now Africa Corps belongs to the Defence Ministry, so it’s an official military operation and the Russian mercenaries are no longer private companies. They also want to avoid another defeat.” He added, “Mali has been in talks with countries like the United States to provide counterterrorism assistance, but certainly not boots on the ground and European troops have already withdrawn. So Mali is pretty much on its own. I don’t think there’s anyone who wants to pick up the pieces of what might be left of the country if the security situation worsens.”
Source: www.aljazeera.com