Economist Mirkomil Kholboev presented an optimistic forecast that Uzbekistan could achieve a $1 trillion economy by 2040. He stated that if the average growth rate of 16% observed after 2021 is maintained, the country could cross this threshold as early as 2038. This forecast was made in response to economist Otabek Bakirov's question on X: "Can we build a $1 trillion economy by the time Uzbekistan's population reaches 50 million people?"

Kholboev emphasized that economic forecasting is a complex process, and current volatile and uncertain conditions make it even more challenging. However, he noted that based on UN demographic projections, Uzbekistan's population is expected to exceed 50 million by 2047 under a medium scenario. If economic growth rates remain high, achieving a $1 trillion economy is possible before the population reaches 50 million.

The expert also highlighted the significant role of external factors in shaping high growth rates. The sharp rise in gold prices and the unexpected positive impact of regional geopolitical tensions on Central Asian countries contributed to economic growth during this period. Therefore, he recommended treating the presented growth scenarios as relatively optimistic forecasts.

According to Kholboev's calculations, if growth remains at an average of 7.2%, as in the post-independence period, Uzbekistan's economy would only reach the $1 trillion mark by 2053. This indicates that even under optimistic demographic scenarios, if economic growth is slow, achieving the goal will be difficult.

The economist also pointed out that future changes in external economic conditions, inflation, and sharp fluctuations in exchange rates could completely alter the given figures. In his view, the main challenge is sustaining high growth rates over a longer period, as countries like Japan, China, and South Korea experienced high-growth phases lasting over 30 years, while in Uzbekistan, this process has only been ongoing for 8 years.

Source: www.gazeta.uz