Eighteen days into the conflict, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) remains active despite significant setbacks. Although the US and Israeli attacks killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other political-military leaders in the initial hours, Iran's power structure has overcome the initial shock. Middle East analyst Habib Hosseini-Fard told DW that this assessment does not match reality, as the regime's flexible command system sustains operations.
Bruised but not eliminated, the IRGC continues to carry out attacks on multiple fronts against the US, Israel, and neighboring Arab states. Analysts attribute this resilience to a decentralized and well-connected command structure. Israel claimed to have killed Ali Larijani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, and Gholamreza Soleimani, head of the Basij militia, yet IRGC activities persist.
According to US Central Command (CENTCOM), Iran has launched over 300 attacks in the past two weeks on Oman, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Jordan, Cyprus, Turkey, Azerbaijan, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Iraq, Kuwait, and Bahrain. Saudi Arabia's Defense Ministry reported intercepting more than 60 drones in a single night, illustrating the unprecedented scale of the confrontation. The UAE also reported casualties from falling debris of Iranian projectiles.
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has ruled out negotiations, stating there will be no cease-fire as long as the US and Israel continue to strike Iranian targets. He appears to rely on a still-robust military apparatus, with the IRGC as the key actor capable of flexible responses. The IRGC was established after the 1979 Islamic Revolution to prevent coups and protect state ideology.
Analysts note that the IRGC has evolved from a hierarchical institution into a networked structure, with provincial commands operating independently. Iran's strategic depth and underground missile silos make it impossible to destroy its military capabilities quickly, explaining the continuation of attacks despite US claims of maximum destruction. The US and Israel have allegedly hit some 15,000 targets, yet Iran manages to fire rockets at Israeli cities and target the US embassy in Baghdad.
Political analyst Reza Talebi warns against simplistic assumptions about a power collapse in Iran, emphasizing that the Revolutionary Guards control economic and ideological structures extending beyond Iran, including the Quds Force and proxy groups across the Middle East. These interconnections make a rapid relinquishing of power extremely difficult. If the system collapses, a breakdown resembling Syria or Afghanistan is more likely than an orderly transfer.
Hosseini-Fard suggests that the US and Israel are purportedly pursuing a strategy to weaken Iran's remaining military capacities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while conducting targeted strikes to foment internal protest. However, a cease-fire or collapse of the IRGC is unlikely in the near future. The most probable scenario is a continuation of the war at its current or expanded level, with regional dimensions growing through attacks on Gulf infrastructure.
Source: www.dw.com