Yemen’s Houthi forces launched their first missile attack on Israel on Saturday, with military spokesperson Brigadier-General Yahya Saree announcing the operation. On Sunday, he stated that a “second military operation” had been carried out using cruise missiles and drones, vowing that the Houthis would continue military actions until Israel ceases its attacks. This escalation has heightened concerns about a broader regional conflict and the potential blockade of the Bab al-Mandeb strait, a critical chokepoint for global commodity trade.

Analysts warn that if the Houthis move to block Bab al-Mandeb, it could severely disrupt global shipping, particularly oil and gas flows, exacerbating economic pressures worldwide. The strait, located between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and handles about 10% of global trade. With Iran having previously targeted vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, causing a global energy crisis, attention is now shifting to this new potential flashpoint, which could provide additional leverage for Iran and its allies amid ongoing tensions.

While the Houthis are part of Iran’s so-called “axis of resistance,” experts note their decision-making remains largely independent. Iranian authorities are likely to welcome their involvement, but it is unclear if this constitutes full-scale entry into the war. Former US diplomat Nabeel Khoury described the missile attacks as “token participation,” suggesting the Houthis are signaling readiness to escalate if needed, such as by blocking Bab al-Mandeb with boats or mines, which could trigger rapid retaliatory strikes.

According to Ahmed Nagi, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, the Houthis’ current posture reflects a calculated alignment with Tehran’s broader strategy, aimed at supporting Iran in negotiations and avoiding the need to use Bab al-Mandeb. However, if hostilities intensify, blocking the strait could become a “nightmare scenario,” crippling trade to Europe and further destabilizing the region, as noted by Middle East specialist Elisabeth Kendall.

Source: www.aljazeera.com