The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) is reasserting its authority in Ethiopia's northern Tigray region after electing Debretsion Gebremichael as its leader. The move has heightened tensions with the federal government, sparking fears of a return to armed conflict in the Horn of Africa.
In 2020, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed postponed national elections due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The TPLF accused him of unconstitutional power extension, organized local elections, and won, leading to a two-year war with the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) that killed an estimated 600,000 people.
The Pretoria peace agreement in November 2022 annulled the 2020 local elections and established an Interim Regional Administration, sidelining TPLF's wartime leaders. However, disagreements between the interim administration and the TPLF emerged after three years.
In April 2024, the TPLF restored the dissolved Tigray State Council. On May 5, Debretsion Gebremichael was elected president of Tigray. Deputy leader Amanuel Assefa declared, 'The interim administration no longer exists.' Debretsion reportedly entered the president's office and began working.
This challenges Tadesse Werede, the head of the transitional administration appointed by the Ethiopian government. Werede accused the TPLF of attempting to seize power by force and stressed that dialogue is the only solution. He warned that any forceful removal would be illegitimate.
Analysts describe the situation as highly dangerous. 'We don't know what the federal government's response is,' said Amanuel Gedebo of the Clingendael Institute. Reports indicate Ethiopian MiG fighter jets have been flying over Tigray's capital Mekelle, and ENDF forces are positioning in neighboring Amhara and Afar regions.
Ethiopia faces multiple armed challenges: the TPLF in Tigray, Fano militias in Amhara, and the Oromo Liberation Army in Oromia. The TPLF, though banned as a political party, remains a powerful regional force. Abiy Ahmed has allegedly failed to oust the TPLF's old guard.
Regional dynamics involve Eritrea, which experts say fuels instability in neighboring countries. The war in Iran has also impacted the region, causing fuel shortages and inflation in Ethiopia, potentially discouraging escalation. The UAE supports Ethiopia, while Saudi Arabia backs Eritrea, but both are preoccupied with their own regional conflicts.
Source: www.dw.com