US President Donald Trump set high expectations ahead of his high-stakes summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, vowing to urge Xi to “open up” China’s economy and bringing a delegation of top executives including Elon Musk, Tim Cook, and Jensen Huang.
As the two-day meetings conclude on Friday, observers are modest about the outcomes. Trump and Xi are expected to extend the one-year trade war pause agreed in South Korea in October, but the focus is on stabilization, not revitalization, of ties between the world’s two largest economies locked in rivalry over trade, AI, and Taiwan.
“It is important to be clear-eyed about the state of relations,” Claire E. Reade, a former USTR official, told Al Jazeera. “China does not trust the US, and China wants to beat the US in what it sees as long-term global competition. This limits what can be agreed.”
The US side has flagged various business deals. Trump told Fox News that China would invest “hundreds of billions of dollars” in companies run by his delegation CEOs and had agreed to buy US oil and 200 Boeing aircraft. Officials also discussed a “Board of Investment” to manage bilateral investments.
Experts say a realistic opening of China’s market would focus on sectors with obvious economic complementarity, such as agriculture and high-value manufacturing. Progress in sensitive areas like financial services would be incremental.
Analysts highlight supply-chain vulnerabilities exposed by the trade war. “The Iran war has likely increased the US’s vulnerability to export controls on rare earths,” said Gabriel Wildau of Teneo. “Washington will offer tariff relief in exchange for Beijing’s commitment to keep rare earth exports flowing.”
After the South Korea summit, the average US tariff on Chinese goods stood at 47.5%, up from 3.1% before Trump’s first term. China’s tariff on US goods was 31.9%, up from 8.4% in 2018. Two-way goods trade fell to $415bn in 2025 from a peak of $690bn in 2022.
Carsten Holz, an expert on the Chinese economy, said China has less incentive to make concessions due to the rise of domestic industries. “PRC firms hold leading positions across many sectors. The PRC economy has little to gain from opening further to the US and is likely to offer largely symbolic gestures.”
Reade said Xi would not agree to measures that “harm Chinese interests in any way.” Instead, China may offer no-cost “gifts” like removing trade barriers on US beef. “If it allows purchases of US tech products, it will only be because it needs them right now, but this does not interfere with China’s strategic plans to eliminate dependence on US technology over the longer term.”
Source: www.aljazeera.com