Germany's interior minister has accused Russia of being behind the discovery of explosive-laden drones at Leipzig airport, describing it as part of a pattern of "Russian hybrid operations" across Europe.
August saw a series of suspicious fires at defense facilities from Italy to Estonia. Poland's interior minister Marcin Kierwiński warned that Russia is intensifying its terrorist and sabotage activities, noting "many, many signals" of this shift.
The timeline of incidents is striking: August 4, first drone found in Leipzig; August 10, major fire at Bulgaria's EMCO defense factory; August 13, explosion at KNDS Ammo Italy; August 15, fire at Estonia's Milrem Robotics, which supplies drones to Ukraine.
On August 25, Slovakia announced it had averted an arson attack on a Ukrainian-owned drone manufacturer, arresting three suspects. On August 30, Poland reported two more fires, including an arson attack on WB Group, a drone producer, caught on CCTV.
Experts link the spike to Ukraine's strikes inside Russian territory. Daniela Richterova of King's College says Moscow is "under pressure" and using sabotage as "coercive signaling" to pressure countries to stop supporting Kyiv.
Keir Giles of Chatham House argues Russia is "probing the boundaries" of NATO's tolerance, testing what works and what's vulnerable, potentially preparing for a "next phase" of aggression.
The campaign echoes Cold War tactics, with similar targets on Soviet sabotage lists. Richterova warns that the recent attacks "shrink the grey zone" between peace and war, increasing the risk of escalation, possibly by accident.
Germany's federal police have listed over 165 suspected sabotage cases this year. While most attacks use "gig economy saboteurs" — cheap, disposable proxies — the Leipzig drone launch may have involved professionals, suggesting Moscow wanted precision and success.
As NATO scrambles to respond, questions remain about how many small attacks constitute a sustained assault. The potential for accidental escalation, such as a mid-air explosion or a downed plane, looms large, with experts warning of a possible major confrontation.
Source: www.bbc.co.uk