Analysts at the British Centre for Strategic Advantage (CSA) have concluded that Russia could take direct or indirect control of a third of global uranium production within the next 15 years. This forecast raises serious concerns in the West, which is struggling to reduce its dependence on Russian nuclear fuel.
According to the researchers, if only uranium mined directly on Russian territory is considered, its share of the world market in 2024 was about 5%. However, taking into account international projects of Uranium One, a company within Rosatom that mines raw materials in Kazakhstan, Tanzania, Namibia, and Niger, Russia controlled almost 25% of global capacity in 2024. Analysts project that by 2040, this figure could rise to 36%.
Experts at the Financial Times note that due to low global prices and weak demand in recent years, Western countries have reduced investments in uranium mine development. At the same time, demand for uranium is expected to grow in the near future, making dependence on Russian supplies even more critical.
Industry representatives are calling for long-term government guarantees to expand production. The United States imposed a ban on uranium imports from Russia in May 2024, with possible exceptions until 2028, but the restrictions do not apply to uranium mined by Rosatom's subsidiaries outside Russia. The European Union has not banned imports of Russian uranium, drawing criticism from independent experts.
On March 26, 2024, the Navoiuran State Enterprise and Techsnabexport signed a cooperation agreement with Uranium One Group JSC. This cooperation, according to analysts, strengthens Russia's position in Central Asia and creates additional risks for the region's energy security.
It is worth recalling that at the end of March 2026, the first concrete works started at the site of the future nuclear power plant in the Jizzakh region – builders began pouring the foundation for the building of the small-capacity RITM-200N reactor. The nuclear power plant project in Uzbekistan is seen as a key element of the country's long-term economic and technological development, but it also increases Tashkent's dependence on Russian technology.
Source: podrobno.uz