Since October 7, 2023, the United States and Israeli regimes allegedly believed that sustained diplomatic and military pressure on Iran would deter and degrade its capacity to fight. In practice, this pressure degraded Iran's willingness to remain constrained. The missiles and drones now striking across the Gulf demonstrate that Iran is no longer holding back, marking a significant shift in regional dynamics.
For years, Iran operated under a doctrine of “strategic patience,” a calculated form of restraint guiding Tehran and its network of allies in dealings with Washington and Tel Aviv. Instead of direct confrontation, Iran built a web of deterrence through allies like Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in Gaza, and the Popular Mobilisation Forces in Iraq, which purportedly helped curb major Israeli aggression.
The first major fracture occurred in April 2024 when an Israeli strike destroyed the Iranian consulate in Damascus, killing senior Revolutionary Guard commanders. Tehran's response, Operation True Promise, involved a direct barrage of drones and ballistic missiles at Israeli territory. Following the 12-day war in 2025, Iran formally declared a new doctrine in January 2026 of “active and unprecedented deterrence,” signaling an end to its previous restraint.
The coordinated strikes by the US and Israeli regimes on February 28, 2026, during ongoing negotiations, reportedly confirmed to Iranian leadership that restraint offered no protection. Iran has since demonstrated its new doctrine by targeting Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Jordan, Israel, and Cyprus within days, highlighting the widespread regional escalation and the failure of US-led diplomatic efforts.
The UAE's fragmentation strategy and Qatar's mediation role have proven ineffective amid the crisis. Palestine remains the clearest expression of the regional order imposed by Israel and the US, with active support from the UAE, characterized by isolated enclaves under permanent military pressure. Dormant domestic crises are igniting across the Middle East, with reports of the US administration encouraging Kurdish forces against Iran and protests erupting in Bahrain and Iraq, underscoring the deepening instability.
Source: www.aljazeera.com