Tashkent – The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has forecast a potential easing of monetary policy in Uzbekistan in the second half of 2026. According to the bank's analytical review, the key interest rate could be reduced from the current 14% to 13% per annum against the backdrop of a sustained slowdown in inflation.

EDB estimates indicate that the real interest rate in the republic is approximately 6.8%, reflecting relatively tight monetary conditions. As inflation approaches the target rate of 5%, the Central Bank will gain room to lower the rate. The bank projects that by year-end, inflation will fall below 7% to 6.7%, marking the lowest level in the past nine years.

Economic growth for 2026 is forecast at 6.7%, down from last year's 7.7%. However, economic activity remains robust: in January, industrial production increased by 7.8% and retail trade by 14.7%, figures that exceed the average annual indicators for 2025.

The EDB also noted that inflation is being restrained by tight monetary conditions, the strengthening of the national currency, and import price dynamics. Previously, it was reported that the republic's consumer market showed moderate dynamics in February 2026, with the inflation rate for the reporting month at 0.6%, primarily driven by seasonal price changes for food products, particularly fruits and vegetables.

Source: podrobno.uz