The Central Bank of Uzbekistan has published a map detailing the vulnerability of the country's regions to earthquakes, water scarcity, floods, landslides, and extreme heat. The data is presented in the Central Bank's Financial Stability Review for 2025.
In the review, the regulator assessed climate change as a source of both physical and transition risks for the economy and financial system. Physical risks include economic losses from extreme weather events, water scarcity, and natural disasters. Transition risks are associated with changes in legislation, technology, and government policy during the shift to a low-carbon economy.
The map covers six types of risk: earthquake, water scarcity, river flooding, urban flooding, landslide, and extreme heat. Regions are categorized into low, medium, and high risk levels. The Central Bank used the highest risk level identified among districts within each region. The data source is the ThinkHazard service, designed for natural hazard assessment.
The highest seismic risk was recorded in Andijan, Jizzakh, Namangan, Samarkand, Surkhandarya, Tashkent, Fergana, and Kashkadarya regions, as well as the city of Tashkent. In other regions, earthquake risk is assessed as medium. In western regions, the main threat is water scarcity. In Karakalpakstan, Khorezm, Navoi, and Bukhara regions, this risk is particularly high due to low precipitation, arid climate, and soil salinization.
According to the review, western Uzbekistan receives nearly 10 times less precipitation than the southeastern regions. In Khorezm region, 41% of lands are moderately or severely salinized, and in Karakalpakstan, 40%. Due to low rainfall, irrigation is crucial for agriculture. About 90% of available water resources are used by this sector. In 2024, agriculture contributed 18% of the country's nominal GDP and 23% of total employment.
River flood risk persists in almost all regions, especially near large water bodies and upstream areas. Urban flood risk is assessed as medium in Khorezm, Jizzakh, and Andijan regions, low in Tashkent city and Syrdarya region, and high in other regions. The expansion of asphalt roads, concrete pavements, and other impermeable surfaces limits water absorption into the soil.
The Central Bank notes that population growth and industrialization are increasing demand for surface and groundwater, while climate change is reducing water supply. By 2050, the flow of the Amu Darya could decrease by 5%, and the Syr Darya by 15%. Annual water scarcity in Uzbekistan is expected to reach 7 billion cubic meters by 2030 and 15 billion cubic meters by 2050. Rising average temperatures could intensify evaporation and further increase water demand.
Agriculture remains the sector most vulnerable to climate change. It accounts for 92% of the country's freshwater consumption. During 2025, the share of loans to agricultural enterprises in banks' loan portfolios increased from 9.1% to 10.1%. The Central Bank emphasizes that agriculture's high dependence on water resources makes it even more susceptible to climate risks.
In Uzbekistan, landslide risk is high mainly in mountainous areas. About 90,000 square kilometers of the country's territory are mountainous, of which 17% are prone to landslides. High landslide risk is noted in Tashkent, Jizzakh, Samarkand, Kashkadarya, Surkhandarya, Fergana, Namangan, and Andijan regions. Navoi region is classified as medium risk. In Karakalpakstan, Khorezm, Bukhara, and Syrdarya regions, as well as Tashkent city, landslide risk is low.
The review also highlights increasing risks from extreme heat. Although high-temperature risk is observed nationwide, almost all regions are classified as medium risk. Only Surkhandarya region is assessed as a high-risk area. From 1950 to 2020, the average temperature in the country rose by 2.9 degrees Celsius. According to forecasts, it could rise by another 1.21–1.94 degrees by the end of this century.
The Central Bank notes that the materialization of climate risks could worsen borrowers' financial conditions, reduce collateral values, and increase banks' credit losses. Therefore, the regulator stresses the need to account for the climate vulnerability of sectors and regions when assessing the stability of the financial system.
Source: www.gazeta.uz