The Board of the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan has decided to maintain the key policy rate at 14 percent per annum following its latest regular meeting. This benchmark rate has remained untouched since March 2025. According to the regulator, although inflation expectations among households and business entities are gradually subsiding, and annual inflation stands at 6.4 percent, persistent high domestic demand and external economic uncertainties necessitate the continuation of tight monetary conditions.

Official data released by the central bank indicate that headline inflation accelerated slightly in September, driven by rising prices for fruits and vegetables, fuels, and certain services, with services inflation reaching 7 percent year-on-year. Core inflation remained stable at 5.5 percent. The regulator points out that the expansion of the share of goods and services experiencing price growth above 5 percent signals ongoing domestic price pressures, requiring continued containment measures.

External vulnerabilities are also compounding the situation, as high volatility in global food markets and fluctuating energy resource prices exert supplementary pressure on imported goods and transportation expenses. Consequently, the central bank has revised its year-end inflation forecast for 2026 upward from 6.5 percent to 7 percent, warning that external factors may prolong the deceleration of domestic price growth.

Despite these monetary headwinds, overall economic activity in the country remains notably robust. Official figures indicate that economic growth reached 8.3 percent in the first nine months of 2026 compared to the same period in the previous year, with the industrial, construction, and services sectors acting as the primary growth drivers.

Source: kun.uz