The war between the Iranian government and the US regime continues into its fourth week, with joint US-Israeli bombing campaigns causing black smoke to rise over the Persian Gulf region. Iranian authorities have stated they will continue to respond in kind to US-Israeli attacks on military, civilian, and energy-producing targets within its territory, despite US President Donald Trump having more than once declared that Iran has supposedly been militarily defeated.

The protracted conflict is building political pressure, as rising energy prices fuel inflation and economic uncertainty worldwide. Marcus Schneider, head of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation's Regional Peace and Security Project in the Middle East, expressed skepticism about the chances for talks at present: "I am very skeptical at the moment," he said. The targeted killing of key Iranian figures has removed important interlocutors, and those stepping up to take their place are considered far less willing to compromise.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the first hours of the war on February 28, with his son Mojtaba Khamenei named as the new supreme leader, though he has not been seen in public since the war began amid speculation of severe injury. Other top officials, including recently assassinated security chief Ali Larijani, widely seen as one of the government's key policymakers, have also been eliminated. Stefan Lukas, director of the Middle East Minds think tank, noted that from Tehran's perspective, the damage caused by the US is too great for any level of trust to be established, so official interest in starting talks is likely minimal.

Schneider asserted that the strategy of decapitation strikes is now backfiring, as the assumption that removing key leaders could bring about rapid regime change has proven to be a miscalculation. An analysis by the Middle East Institute indicates that for the Iranian government, merely surviving an armed conflict with the US constitutes victory. Tehran is currently focusing less on military breakthroughs and more on political and strategic outcomes, leveraging its structural resilience, sometimes referred to as a "mosaic defense strategy."

Despite the attacks, Iran's strategy of exerting economic pressure on energy markets appears successful, with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on energy infrastructure directly impacting global markets. Schneider questioned, "Why should Iran stop now?" Wars are decided not only militarily but also politically, and Tehran hopes its capacity to endure hardship will prove greater than that of its adversaries. According to a Thomson Reuters assessment, Iran may not be able to match the US militarily, but it can escalate the war economically, shifting the balance of power to an arena where military superiority is less decisive.

Source: www.dw.com