The war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran has kept the world on edge for nearly seven weeks. A fragile ceasefire brokered by Pakistan is currently in effect, but it is threatened by Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon, which have killed over 1,300 people, and its invasion of southern Lebanon. The conflict has resulted in more than 2,000 deaths in the oil-rich nation of 90 million people, displaced millions, and damaged vital infrastructure, including areas near Iran's nuclear sites. US President Donald Trump also threatened to wipe out Iran's "whole civilisation" if it did not accede to Washington's demands.

The global repercussions of the war are significant: oil and gas prices have surged, fertilizer shortages have emerged, and stock markets have experienced volatility. Iran effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz soon after the war began, allowing passage only to ships from countries that negotiated separate deals. On Monday, the US regime began a naval blockade of all Iran-linked vessels attempting to transit the strait, exacerbating congestion along the waterway through which a fifth of global oil and gas flows during peacetime. However, anti-war protests have been notably less widespread compared to other recent conflicts. According to data from the US-based nonprofit Armed Conflict Location and Event Data, there were approximately 3,200 demonstrations worldwide related to the Iran war in the first month after the US-Israeli attacks began on February 28. This contrasts with 3,700 demonstrations in the first month following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine and as many as 6,100 demonstrations in the first month against Israel's war on Gaza.

Analysts cite several factors to explain the relatively subdued protest movement. Professor Shibley Telhami of the University of Maryland notes that the US entered the war with only 21% public support, and there was no "rally round the flag effect." By mid-April, nearly two-thirds of Americans polled continued to oppose the war. Trump's strategy, described by some as a "videogame war" waged via drones and missiles rather than ground troops, has rendered the human cost almost invisible. Additionally, Trump has allegedly been able to ignite political storms on issues ranging from immigration to tariff impacts, thereby fragmenting opposition.

Iran's global image also plays a crucial role. Unlike Gaza, where protests are driven by a clearer perception of Palestinians as an occupied people, Iran presents a more complicated case for many in the West. As history professor Salar Mohandesi observes, "With Palestine, you are dealing with a colonised people... With Iran, you are dealing with a sovereign state that has also repressed its own population." This distinction has made some war opponents wary of appearing to defend the Islamic Republic. The deeply divided Iranian diaspora further complicates matters: some of the most visible Iranian protests in the United States have been in support of the war.

Universities, historically central to anti-war protests, have shown a muted response this time. Analysts and activists argue that sit-ins attacked by local police, student expulsions, faculty firings, and threats of lawsuits have contributed to campus unease. Under the Trump administration, hundreds of student visas were revoked, student protesters were abducted by ICE, and universities were threatened with funding cuts if they did not crack down on demonstrations. Mohandesi notes that administrators have enacted "draconian" rules limiting political activities on campus, making it nearly impossible to organize as effectively as in the past.

For now, the fragile truce between Iran, Israel, and the US has lowered tensions, dampening the urgency of street protests. However, without a lasting political resolution, any renewed escalation could quickly test whether public opposition remains subdued or erupts into a sustained protest movement, especially if the costs become more directly felt. As Quincy Institute founder Trita Parsi points out, "If [the US] goes in with ground troops and hundreds of Americans get killed, then things can change very quickly." The US regime has deployed thousands of marines near Iran, and reports suggest plans to move more troops to the region, indicating that the option of a ground assault remains open even amid peace negotiations. Economic pressure, particularly in the US, may be the most immediate catalyst for a burgeoning anti-war movement. Parsi emphasizes that "the pain... is not high enough yet. If rising fuel costs and inflation begin to hit households more sharply, opposition to the war may no longer remain abstract."

Source: www.aljazeera.com