The global economy remains hostage to the US-Iran war. The Strait of Hormuz is closed, with no signs of reopening. Trump's main efforts are focused on diplomacy. Despite his angry posts and harshest threats, the primary goal is to reach an agreement with Tehran—otherwise, why avoid a full-scale war for three months?
The war is largely economic. Iran understands that Trump will not launch a major ground operation, nor can he. So there is no choice but to seek a deal. Of course, Trump will not admit defeat, but the whole world sees his plan has failed.
However, there is one country that is more displeased with the end of the war the more actively Trump seeks compromise with Iran: Israel. What is Israel afraid of? Israel's attacks on Lebanon and its military operations remain the top news in the global press. The more actively Trump seeks an agreement with Iran, the more devastating Israel's strikes on Lebanon become—through Lebanon and Hezbollah, it tries to provoke Iran and sabotage US-Iran agreements.
Why is Israel unhappy and what does it fear? If the US does not reach a deal with Iran, the global economy will suffer, Trump and the Republicans will lose their positions, and US global prestige will decline, indirectly hitting Israel as well. But no, the Israeli elite thinks differently. First, the US is a colossal economic and demographic power. The death of tens of thousands of soldiers will not lead to its collapse. The US lost in Vietnam, failed to achieve total victory in Afghanistan and Iraq, but its global power was not dismantled. If the US starts a full-scale war with Iran, it will suffer losses but not collapse, while Iran could be destroyed. So Israel dreams of the US getting into a big war with Iran. Trump's reputation, the Republicans, budgets, and the lives of American soldiers are not the main factors for Israel.
Second, due to the US-Israeli strike, Iran is establishing full official control over the Strait of Hormuz. For Israel, this is the worst scenario, as Tehran gains leverage for unlimited pressure on all countries, including the US, and can turn this pressure into a routine tool—for example, currently, due to attacks on Lebanon, the US is pressuring Israel. If before the war on February 28, everyone considered Israel the main aggressive force in the Middle East, Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz changes its regional and global status. Arab allies of the US are beginning to take Iran more seriously. Israel is gradually losing regional hegemony, so its dream is to drag the US into a war with Iran, to go all-in. However, this time Trump not only said 'no' to Netanyahu but also reprimanded the Israeli prime minister for the war in Lebanon.
Cooling relations vs. strategic alliance. Can the recent cooling of relations between Trump and Netanyahu overshadow the US-Israeli strategic alliance? No, the ties between the two countries are very strong and deep, not dependent on the personal relationship of leaders. The political class, organizations, and people linking the two states are numerous and powerful. However, trust in Israel is rapidly declining worldwide, including in the US. Public opinion and EU governments today are more on the side of Palestine than Israel. Recently, at the Eurovision contest, several countries, including one of the founders—Spain, boycotted the performance of Israeli participants. In the US, public opinion is also shifting. Support for Israel is falling among both Democrats and Republicans. Ordinary Americans trust Palestine more. Against this backdrop, Israel is trying to implement its large-scale projects through wars and sabotage of US-Iran negotiations.
This is what Trump meant when he told Netanyahu on the phone: 'The whole world hates you.' Under Trump's pressure, Netanyahu stopped the war in Lebanon. But the Israeli state will wait for a convenient moment to sabotage the US-Iran agreement, which it sees as a threat to its hegemony. Establishing peace in the region will be very difficult, and even if it comes, it will not last long.
Source: kun.uz