While the US signals a desire to negotiate, Iranians are playing for time — counting on the world's dependence on Persian Gulf energy exports and their strongest weapon, the Strait of Hormuz.
The situation in the Persian Gulf is messy. Officially, diplomatic channels between the US and Iran remain open, with US President Donald Trump extending the ceasefire this week. Peace talks, however, seem to be stuck. No new date has been set to continue negotiations in Islamabad, and announcements — including those by Trump — about talks restarting have so far failed to materialize.
According to a Friday report by Iran's Tasnim news agency, there are still no plans to negotiate with the US. Moreover, any future talks will still have to tackle the Iranian nuclear program, which has served as a flashpoint between Tehran and Washington for decades. Now, negotiators will face another huge challenge — the future use of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran hopes to turn the waterway into a source of income. According to a senior Iranian lawmaker cited by Tasnim, the first "toll payments" have already been deposited into Iran's central bank.
Experts say the current standoff is less a traditional military conflict and more a strategic wrangle for time, influence, and resilience. "At the moment, both sides are playing a kind of tactical game of patience," said Middle Eastern expert Hana Voss from Germany's Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung. Iran has already been attacked twice while engaging in talks with the US. Now, Iranian leaders are being extremely cautious regarding new negotiations.
These suspicions go hand in hand with Iran's strategic calculations, says political scientist Pauline Raabe from the Berlin think tank Middle East Minds. "There is obviously more at stake for Iran, because it's about its own territory," she said, adding that Iran is deliberately using its leverage. "Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is undoubtedly in a strong position — it is currently one of the strongest cards it can play."
Through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran can control the flow of oil and gas out of the Persian Gulf and apply leverage on the global economy. "It really doesn't take much effort to effectively block the Strait," said Voss. She adds that mere threats can trigger massive economic effects, with shipping companies pulling out and insurers dropping coverage. Moreover, drones and mines create a prolonged risk.
The conflict also stretches beyond economic and military factors. In an analysis published last month, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy warns that the Iranian regime is ready to "prioritize its ideological mission" of religious and regional dominance over the needs of its population. Voss agrees that the Iranian leaders are ready to "impose significant hardships" on their own people.
At the same time, internal pressure is rising in the US. "With prolonged duration (of the war), economic consequences will be more and more noticeable," Raabe said, warning of rising fuel prices and insecurity gripping financial markets. While pressure mounts on Washington to find a diplomatic solution, Tehran is acting with growing confidence, demanding concessions such as sanctions relief or the release of its funds.
The Washington Institute sketches out several possible scenarios to end the US war in Iran, including regime change in Iran and Iran agreeing to resolve the nuclear row. One option is a "disguised defeat" for the US, where Iran maintains at least some elements of its nuclear program, together with its capability to threaten the Hormuz Strait.
In the end, the conflict seems to boil down to one single question: Who can hold out for longer as the political, economic, and societal costs of the war escalate? Experts like Voss and Raabe give the advantage to Tehran. "Time is working for Iran," Voss told DW.
Source: www.dw.com