Cuba's Civil Defense has released a multi-page guide titled 'The Family Guide for Protection Against Military Aggression', outlining responsibilities and safety protocols for citizens in the event of a US attack. The move comes amid escalating rhetoric from the Trump administration.
US federal prosecutors have indicted former Cuban President Raul Castro over a 1996 incident where four American men died when Cuban jets allegedly shot down aircraft operated by Cuban exiles. The indictment charges Castro with conspiracy to kill US nationals, four counts of murder, and two counts of aircraft destruction.
Helen Yaffe, a professor at the University of Glasgow, explained that Cuba's defense doctrine, adopted after the fall of the Soviet Union, envisions resisting foreign invasion by mobilizing the entire civilian population through guerrilla warfare, local militias, and civil defense networks. 'Everyone in Cuba is trained militarily,' she said.
Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel warned that any US military action would lead to a 'bloodbath' and insisted the island poses no threat. Analysts note that Cuba presents a fundamentally different challenge than Venezuela, with a better-trained and equipped military.
However, Sebastian Arcos of Florida International University dismissed Cuba's military as 'obsolete' with little chance of resisting the US. He acknowledged that Cuba has had more time to prepare for a potential operation.
Geography is a key variable, analysts agree. Cuba's proximity to the US means its 'capacity of response' is far greater than what the US faced in Venezuela or Iran. Any attack could provoke Cuban retaliation reaching American cities, potentially turning US public opinion against the administration.
Unverified US intelligence cited by Axios claimed Cuba acquired 300 military drones to strike Guantanamo Bay, US naval vessels, and Key West. Cuba dismissed the report as a pretext for attack, asserting its right to self-defense.
Political constraints also complicate a US invasion. A migration surge would likely follow any attack, posing a problem for Trump's anti-immigration platform. Cuban Americans, with significant representation in Congress and the administration, would not accept a Venezuela-style resolution short of regime change.
As tensions mount, a slogan echoes across Cuba: 'Aqui no se rinde nadie' – 'No one surrenders here.' The coming months will test whether Cuba's War of All People remains a doctrine or becomes a reality.
Source: www.aljazeera.com