In recent days, US forces have struck Iran's Qeshm, Kish and Abu Musa islands, as well as southern port cities including Bandar Abbas. These attacks have revived a question that has lingered since the early weeks of the US-Israeli war on Iran: Is Washington preparing to seize Iranian territory?

In March, a month into the war, two unnamed US officials told The Washington Post that the US Department of Defence was gearing up for raids on Kharg Island, through which about 90 percent of Iran's crude oil exports pass. The comments fueled speculation of a ground operation.

Talk of a seizure died down after the two sides signed a memorandum of understanding on June 17. But the scenario is back on the table after US President Donald Trump refused to rule it out in a Fox News interview on Monday. "I can't say that to you because if I did, it would be foolish," Trump said.

In a "narrow tactical sense", the US has the military capability to grab Iranian islands, said Andreas Krieg, associate professor in security studies at King's College London. With enough air, naval and amphibious power, the US could seize a small Iranian island, he said. The US has an estimated 50,000 soldiers stationed across the Middle East.

However, "temporarily capturing an island is very different from holding it, supplying it and deriving strategic benefit from it," Krieg said. Qeshm would be especially hard because it is a large island sitting directly off the Iranian mainland. Smaller islands like Hengam could be overrun more easily but would stay within reach of Iranian artillery, drones, missiles and small-boat swarms.

Such a move would require significant manpower. Krieg estimated "a limited operation would probably require an initial force of at least 5,000 to 10,000 personnel". The troop requirements could rise rapidly if several islands were involved. "Those troops would be operating under direct fire from the Iranian mainland," he said.

Nader Hashemi, a professor of Middle East politics at Georgetown University, said he was "very sceptical" that the US would try to seize any of the southern islands, particularly Kharg. The cost in American soldiers and the domestic blowback, especially among Trump's own MAGA base, would be tremendous, a political risk that would invite comparisons to the Iraq War.

In theory, the US could go much further and occupy mainland Iran too, but that would be politically impossible, analysts said. For the US to seize any Iranian island, it would first need to suppress Iran's defences, but air power alone will not destroy them permanently. Many of Iran's radar systems, missile batteries and command centres are mobile or concealed.

Any US seizure of Iranian islands would be treated by Tehran as a major escalation, likely leading to increased mining in the strait, attacks on vessels, US bases and Gulf energy infrastructure. Krieg concluded that taking the islands might produce a dramatic military image, but it would turn a fight over freedom of navigation into a territorial war – and drag Washington towards the larger ground commitment it wants to avoid.

Source: www.aljazeera.com