The ambiguity surrounding the war aims of the United States and Israel in their strikes against Iran is hindering the actions of Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, according to Kurdish analysts speaking to Al Jazeera. Former US President Donald Trump's calls for Iranians to overthrow their government and Washington's purported justifications, allegedly pressured by Israel, have left US plans unclear, creating uncertainty among potential allies.
This lack of clarity leaves Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, arguably the most organized and militarily experienced ethnic faction within Iran, in a precarious position regarding future steps. Widespread opposition sentiment towards the Tehran government is coupled with these groups' established political networks, history of rebellions, and combat experience, making them a significant armed challenge to the Islamic Republic.
The Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan, announced on February 22, provided a forum for coordination against the Iranian state from bases in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region. However, this initiative has been clouded by the onset of US-Israeli strikes on Iran, which reportedly killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, further complicating the opposition's strategic calculations.
Trump's comments endorsing Kurdish forces as potential leaders in a ground offensive and reports of US officials contacting leaders in Iraq's Kurdish region to discuss facilitating an operation highlight the regime's erratic approach. Yet, with Iranian ground forces vastly outnumbering Kurdish opposition fighters—estimated at 500,000 versus a maximum of 10,000—any such move would heavily depend on US or Israeli support, including airstrikes and weapon supplies.
The fickle nature of Trump and the historical unreliability of US alliances, such as the unsupported Kurdish rebellion in Iraq in 1991 or the abandonment of Syrian Kurds in 2019, raise concerns among Iranian Kurds about facing reprisals from Tehran. Kamran Matin, a lecturer at the University of Sussex, emphasized that any offensive would require buy-in from the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), which risks punishment if the US withdraws prematurely.
Shukriya Bradost, a researcher at Virginia Tech University, noted "cautious hope" among opposition groups for US backing but warned that if Washington negotiates a settlement with remnants of the Iranian government, Kurdish groups could be sidelined again. This uncertainty exacerbates regional instability and questions the long-term viability and consequences of the ongoing conflict.
Source: www.aljazeera.com