Tashkent, Uzbekistan – Podrobno.uz. After a historic decline in the dollar exchange rate in Uzbekistan, the US currency is expected to rise again. Analysts at the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) forecast a gradual weakening of the Uzbek som in 2027–2028.
According to the EDB's conservative scenario, the average dollar exchange rate in 2027 will be 12,900 soums per dollar. In 2028, the figure could rise to 14,100 soums.
Artur Sharafutdinov, head of the EDB Center for Country Analysis, explained that the moderate devaluation of the national currency after its strengthening will occur against the backdrop of sustained high domestic demand and faster import growth.
He noted that the growing need for foreign products, driven by an active investment cycle, equipment purchases, and economic modernization, will naturally increase demand for foreign currency in the republic, leading to a gradual weakening of the som.
At the same time, analysts note that the depreciation of the national currency in the medium term will be limited. Stable high gold prices, ensuring steady export revenues, and an expected increase in remittance inflows will help contain the process and support the som's stability in 2027–2028.
For the current year 2026, EDB analysts expect an average exchange rate of 12,200 soums per dollar, revising down their previous forecast of 12,800 soums due to significantly stronger support factors.
Bank experts recalled that in 2025, the national currency strengthened on average over the year. Sharafutdinov emphasized that a whole range of drivers worked during this period: foreign direct investment inflows reaching $19 billion or 13% of GDP in 2025, high remittance volumes, and attractive interest rates on som-denominated assets.
"I think this is a very good factor that helps slow inflation and achieve the Central Bank of Uzbekistan's 5% target faster. This is definitely good for consumers. Cheaper imported goods are great," summarized the head of the EDB Center for Country Analysis.
Foreign capital inflows will continue to support currency supply in the market in the coming years, but in 2027, their impact will be partially offset by rising imports of machinery and intermediate goods for investment projects.
Source: podrobno.uz