️ According to a comprehensive new report by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), Uzbekistan may be forced to curtail generation from solar and wind power plants by 2028 due to severe infrastructure bottlenecks in the national power grid. Transmission and distribution limitations could result in estimated generation losses of approximately 3.5 billion kilowatt-hours annually, highlighting a growing disconnect between rapid renewable capacity additions and grid modernization.

️ The data indicates that under the country's 2026–2028 energy system development plan, forced curtailments are projected to scale up steadily. The losses are expected to reach 2.2 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026, climbing to 3 billion in 2027, and approaching 3.5 billion by 2028. Analysts warn that these figures represent a conservative baseline estimate, and if actual renewable energy installations outpace current forecasts, the volume of wasted potential generation will expand correspondingly.

️ The underlying causes for these inefficiencies include the geographic mismatch between power plant locations and local demand centers, the operational limitations of traditional thermal plants that cannot reduce loads below technical minimums, and a general shortage of fast-response reserves. The issue is reported to be particularly acute between May and October, when renewable output peaks while demand remains moderate, leaving the grid unable to absorb or reroute the surplus power effectively.

️ To mitigate these substantial losses, the EDB suggests strengthening regional electricity trade within the Central Asian integrated power system, upgrading cross-border transmission lines, implementing advanced digital monitoring, and investing in energy storage solutions. While Uzbek authorities are currently evaluating several pumped storage hydroelectric plant projects with an estimated total cost of 2.2 billion dollars, experts emphasize that significant structural reforms and capital investments are still urgently required.

Source: podrobno.uz