Washington, March 12, 2026 – Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, in the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment presented to the Senate Intelligence Committee, listed Pakistan alongside Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran as countries with advancing missile capabilities that could eventually put US territory within reach. Gabbard stated that these five nations are “researching and developing an array of novel, advanced or traditional missile delivery systems with nuclear and conventional payloads, that put our homeland within range”.
Focusing specifically on Pakistan, Gabbard told lawmakers that “Pakistan’s long-range ballistic missile development potentially could include Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) with the range capable of striking the homeland”. The written assessment went further, placing Pakistan across multiple threat categories. On missiles, it said Pakistan “continues to develop increasingly sophisticated missile technology that provides its military the means to develop missile systems with the capability to strike targets beyond South Asia, and if these trends continue, ICBMs that would threaten the US”.
The assessment also flagged South Asia as a region of “enduring security challenges”, warning that India-Pakistan relations “remain a risk for nuclear conflict”. It referenced last year’s Pahalgam attack in Indian-administered Kashmir as an example of how violence by armed groups can trigger crises, while noting that “President Trump’s intervention de-escalated the most recent nuclear tensions” and that “neither country seeks to return to open conflict”.
Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has not issued a formal response to Wednesday’s testimony so far. The latest assessment comes at a complex moment in US-Pakistan relations. Over 2025, the two countries underwent a diplomatic reset, driven in part by the four-day conflict between India and Pakistan in May. Trump has repeatedly cited his administration’s role in brokering the ceasefire between the nuclear-armed neighbours, which led to Pakistan nominating Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Former Pakistani army brigadier and arms control specialist Tughral Yamin noted that Gabbard is not the first US official to raise such concerns. He said, “Similar remarks have been made in the past. Officially, Pakistan has countered such rhetoric by pointing out that Pakistani deterrence – both conventional and nuclear – is meant against India. Even with India, Pakistan seeks peace at honourable terms and not because the US chose to identify Pakistan as a threat.”
While Gabbard’s remarks were framed around the future potential of Pakistan’s missile programme, experts question the logic of the US intelligence assessment. Pakistan’s longest-range operational missile, the Shaheen-III, has an estimated range of roughly 2,750 km, sufficient to cover all of India. Intercontinental ballistic missiles are generally defined as having a range exceeding 5,500 km, which Pakistan does not currently possess. However, even with shorter-range ICBMs, Pakistan would not be in a position to reach US shores: the distance between the two countries exceeds 11,200 km.
Washington has nonetheless been closely monitoring Pakistan’s missile programme. In December 2024, the Joe Biden administration sanctioned Pakistan’s National Development Complex, the body responsible for its ballistic missile programme, along with three private companies. The US accused them of procuring items for long-range missile development, including specialised vehicle chassis and missile testing equipment. Then-US deputy national security adviser Jon Finer said at the time that if current trends continued, Pakistan would have “the capability to strike targets well beyond South Asia, including in the United States”.
Former Pakistani ambassador to Washington Jalil Abbas Jilani rejected Gabbard’s new remarks, writing, “Tulsi Gabbard’s assertion at the Senate hearing that the US homeland is within range of Pakistan’s nuclear and conventional missiles is not grounded in strategic reality. Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine is India-specific, aimed at maintaining credible deterrence in South Asia, not projecting power globally.” Former Pakistani high commissioner to India Abdul Basit also criticised the comparison, stating, “Pakistan’s nuclear programme has always been India-specific. Such self-serving and groundless assertions only betray Gabbard’s incorrigible biases.”
Pakistan has long maintained that its nuclear and strategic programmes are calibrated solely to deter India. Three months after its conflict with India in May 2025, Pakistan announced the formation of its Army Rocket Force Command (ARFC). It has also accused Washington of double standards, pointing to deepening US strategic cooperation with New Delhi, including advanced defence technology transfers, while penalising Islamabad for pursuing what it sees as necessary deterrence.
Nuclear security scholar Rabia Akhtar said Gabbard’s statement reflects “a persistent flaw in US threat assessments, which is substituting worst-case speculation for grounded analysis”. She noted, “Pakistan’s deterrence posture is India-centric. Folding it into a US homeland threat narrative is misleading. The claim that Pakistan is pursuing capabilities to target the US ignores decades of evidence. Its nuclear programme, doctrine, and missile development have remained India-centric. Even its longest-range systems are calibrated to deny India strategic depth, not project power beyond the region.”
Source: www.aljazeera.com