Myanmar's military chief, Min Aung Hlaing, has been nominated for the presidency as parliament convened on Monday, following a general election that excluded the biggest opposition parties. This development comes amid an ongoing civil war that has resulted in thousands of deaths and millions displaced, with large areas of the country remaining under the control of armed opposition groups.
Min Aung Hlaing is almost certain to be chosen, as he was nominated in parliament alongside two loyalists who are very unlikely to contend for the position. He has been sanctioned by many Western countries for leading a military coup five years ago. The general elections, held between December and January, were touted by the junta as a pathway to peace, but the vote was widely viewed as a sham, with many popular parties banned from standing and large regions unable to participate due to the civil war.
The regime has rejected this criticism, maintaining that the election was free and fair. However, around 90% of the members of Myanmar's new parliament owe their loyalty to Min Aung Hlaing, either as serving officers in the armed forces—who are guaranteed a quarter of the seats—or as elected candidates for the military's own party. They plan to spend most of this week debating the choice of the next president, but it is now inevitable that the coup leader will secure the job.
Min Aung Hlaing is known to have long desired the presidency. The prospect of not attaining it after the military party's dismal performance in the 2020 election was a significant factor behind the coup that ousted the elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi. Yet, there are trade-offs: the constitution stipulates that Min Aung Hlaing must relinquish command of the armed forces if he becomes president.
This carries substantial risks. There are known senior commanders who are dissatisfied with his leadership. He has already selected a staunch loyalist, General Ye Win Oo, to replace him, who has a reputation for brutal treatment of dissidents. But the risk persists that once Min Aung Hlaing no longer controls the military, he may lose some of his power. He has also established a new consultative council that he will head, which could grant him continued authority over both military and civilian affairs.
What is not in doubt is that the new administration will essentially be an expanded version of the current military junta, albeit in civilian guise. There has been no indication from Min Aung Hlaing or his deputies that he will alter course and end the violent suppression of those who oppose his seizure of power five years ago.
Source: www.bbc.com