Svein Tore Holsether, chief executive of Yara, one of the world's largest fertilizer producers, told the BBC that disruptions to supplies of fertilizer and its key ingredients caused by the war in Iran could result in the loss of up to 10 billion meals per week globally, hitting the poorest countries hardest.

Hostilities in the Gulf have blocked shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, jeopardizing global food production. Reduced crop yields from lower fertilizer use could lead to a bidding war for food, he warned. He urged European nations to consider the impact of a price war on the "most vulnerable" in other countries.

Although the UK is unlikely to face food shortages, increased costs for food producers are expected to show up on weekly food bills in the coming months. "We're up to half a million tons of nitrogen fertiliser not being produced in the world right now... What does that mean for food production? I would get to up to 10 billion meals that will not be produced every week as a result of the lack of fertilisers," Holsether said.

Not applying nitrogen fertilizer could reduce crop yields by as much as 50% in the first season. The main destinations for fertilizers are Asia, Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America, where the most immediate impact would be felt. Sub-Saharan Africa, already under-fertilized, could see even larger drops in yields.

Planting seasons vary globally. In the UK it is peak planting season, while in Asia farmers are just starting. The consequences of fertilizer shortages in Asia will not appear in food prices until the end of the year, when harvests come in smaller than expected. Professor Paul Teng from Singapore noted that some countries might have enough fertilizer for the immediate season, "but if the crisis drags on any longer, we will be seeing impact on crops such as rice in the coming months."

Farmers face daunting challenges: higher energy costs, diesel for tractors increasing, other inputs rising, and fertilizer costs soaring, while crop prices have not yet adjusted. According to the UN, about a third of the world's fertilizers normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Fertilizer prices have surged 80% since the US and Israel's war on Iran began.

A continuation of the conflict could result in a bidding war for food between richer and poorer nations. "If there's a bidding war on food and one that Europe is robust enough to handle, what we need to keep in mind in Europe is, OK, in that situation, who are we buying the food away from? That is a situation where the most vulnerable people pay the highest price," Holsether said.

In the UK, the Food and Drink Federation recently forecast food inflation could reach 10% by December. The Bank of England said food price inflation could rise to 4.6% in September and go even higher later. The UN World Food Programme estimates that the combined fallout from the Middle East conflict could push 45 million additional people into acute hunger in 2026. In Asia and the Pacific, food insecurity is expected to rise by 24% — the largest relative increase of any region.

Source: www.bbc.com