US President Donald Trump on Sunday hailed a framework agreement between the United States and Iran aimed at ending hostilities in the Gulf that have reduced commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to a trickle for more than three months. The deal, scheduled to be signed on Friday in Switzerland, reopens the strait to shipping without tolls, lifts the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, and allows Tehran to resume oil exports under limited sanctions relief. The framework also extends the current ceasefire for at least 60 days while launching broader talks on Iran's nuclear program.

However, restoring prewar oil, gas and container traffic through this vital chokepoint faces significant hurdles. Greek maritime risk management agency MARISKS warned in a research note that the framework agreement should be viewed as "the beginning of a de-escalation process rather than the immediate restoration of normal trading conditions."

Assuming attacks have ended, Iran must first find and clear the naval mines it deployed during the conflict. Most could be located fairly quickly using minesweepers, underwater drones and sonar, but some mines may have drifted or be hard to find. Independent observers will then need to verify that the waterway is safe for shipping. The process could take 40 to 50 days, according to maritime security sources.

Even after mines are cleared, shipping firms will be looking for much lower war-risk insurance costs. Currently, premiums remain extremely high, at 1% to 4% of a vessel's value per transit, compared with prewar rates below 0.1%. For a typical $200-million tanker, this has added between $2 million and $8 million per transit. Lloyd's List cited an underwriter who described premiums as "quick to go up, slow to go down."

Once safe corridors are established, hundreds of commercial vessels stranded in the Gulf region can begin moving. Data from Kpler shows 300 fully loaded vessels are currently sitting in the Gulf, while a further 250 are empty and awaiting loading. In the Gulf of Oman, another 300 empty tankers are awaiting permission to enter the Gulf. Around 20,000 seafarers are estimated to remain aboard stranded vessels, and 14 crew members have been killed in attacks.

Gulf countries can now begin to ramp up oil and gas production, but this requires safety inspections, repairs to damaged infrastructure, and the phased return of workers. Neil Shearing of Capital Economics projected it would take until the end of September for around 80% of energy flows through Hormuz to resume, but warned that natural gas flows "will be slower to return" due to damage to Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG hub, which knocked out about 17% of export capacity for several years.

The biggest unresolved issue is that the framework agreement is just an outline for negotiators. The US insists on a permanently toll-free strait, while Iranian officials talk of "service fees" and retaining control. Broader issues like Iran's nuclear ambitions, sanctions relief, and Tehran's support for groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis remain unresolved. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stressed that his country is not bound by the agreement and will continue to act in self-defense, raising fears that unilateral strikes could unravel the fragile framework.

Source: www.dw.com