In Tripoli, representatives of Libya's rival political camps have signed a landmark agreement, drafting a roadmap that could see presidential and legislative elections within 24 months.
Mediated by the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), the '4+4 committee' agreement attempts to resolve recurring legal and institutional disputes that have crippled the nation since 2011.
However, in a country plagued by deep mistrust, shifting alliances, and entrenched armed factions, the path from a signed document to a unified government remains fraught with challenges.
Libya has been in a near-perpetual state of instability since a 2011 uprising toppled and killed longtime ruler Muammar Gaddafi. Initially, the country showed political promise, but divisions slowly arose in the rebel camp, chiefly between factions controlling the east and west.
In August 2012, the National Transitional Council officially handed over power to the newly elected General National Congress in what remains the country's first and only peaceful transfer of power following national elections. That fragile democratic momentum, however, quickly disintegrated into armed conflict.
In May 2014, renegade military commander Khalifa Haftar took control of Benghazi and still controls the east of Libya. A divisive election later that year prompted some newly announced MPs to form the House of Representatives and relocate to the eastern city of Tobruk under Haftar's military protection.
The political divide turned into open warfare in April 2019 when Haftar launched an unsuccessful 14-month offensive to capture the capital Tripoli, where the United Nations-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) was based. By June 2020, the front lines stabilised near the strategic central city of Sirte, leading to a formal ceasefire agreement later that year.
This left Libya with two distinct authorities operating across its territory. Tripoli is home to the internationally recognised GNA, headed by interim Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah. In Tobruk and Benghazi, political power centres on the House of Representatives, led by Speaker Aguila Saleh, which supports a parallel eastern administration. But primary control across eastern and southern Libya is exercised by the self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA), commanded by Khalifa Haftar.
Despite the 2020 ceasefire, political reunification has remained elusive due to failed international initiatives and systemic economic competition. In 2021, Dbeibah was appointed to lead an interim executive, contingent on conducting national elections at the end of the year. As part of this deal, Dbeibah agreed not to run, but the 2021 election collapsed just two days before the scheduled vote when he reneged on his pledge.
Another key factor in this new agreement is the involvement of major powers. Under United States President Donald Trump, Washington has intensified efforts to broker a unification deal, led by White House adviser Massad Boulos and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Boulos has put forward an initiative offering US energy investments in Libya's oil fields in exchange for a unified executive.
The newly signed 4+4 agreement ultimately represents a deliberate attempt to balance power between east and west, analysts say. The agreement mandates presidential and parliamentary elections within 24 months under a single executive authority. It also seems aimed at resolving the primary legal disputes that destroyed the 2021 vote by allowing dual citizens to contest the presidency – so long as the winner relinquishes foreign nationality before taking the oath of office.
Further, it permits military officers to run as candidates upon stepping down from official posts. Both of these legal changes would appear designed to pave the way for either Saddam or Khalifa Haftar, who are believed to have US nationalities and are commanders in the self-styled LNA, to have official government posts.
Analyst Wissam Abdul Kabir argued that the direct involvement of armed factions distinguishes this pact from previous ones. 'I believe what makes it different is that for the first time, the agreement is signed between the active parties,' Abdul Kabir told Al Jazeera. However, many in Libya view 4+4 as the latest in a series of failed peace initiatives.
High Council of State leader Mohammed Takala boycotted the ceremony, while Presidential Council head Mohammad al-Manfi openly criticised the procedural transparency and foreign involvement in the arrangement. Mohammed Mahfouz, a political analyst, said the arrangement appears to be nothing more than an attempt by outside powers to cement the powers of Saddam Haftar and Dbeibah.
Despite the promise of new elections, there is little hope that Libya's current leaders will relinquish their power if they lose at the ballot box. 'There is a firm conviction among everyone that whoever reaches power in Libya cannot budge an inch from it except by the rifle, unfortunately,' said Mahfouz.
Source: www.aljazeera.com