This commentary is based on short- and medium-term weather forecasts from Uzgidromet and is not a direct weather forecast. It aims to explain the numbers and phenomena from weather bureau forecasts in simple language.
During weekdays, temperatures in Uzbekistan will be near or slightly below normal, with daytime highs of +32…+37°C. By the weekend, a brief heatwave is expected due to the influx of hot air from the south. In mountainous and valley areas, there is a risk of heavy rain and mudslides on some days.
Overall, the week's temperature will be shaped by a cyclone passing through western and northern Kazakhstan, followed by an anticyclone expected over the Caspian Sea with atmospheric pressure up to 1025 hPa, and the weekend heat.
Due to cyclonic and anticyclonic influences, the five-day temperature during weekdays will be slightly cooler than the second week of June in previous years. According to foreign weather bureaus, the average five-day temperature across the republic will be normal, and in many regions 1-2 degrees below normal.
According to Uzgidromet's forecasts, on Monday the maximum temperature in most regions will be +37°C, in the south +39°C. On Tuesday, a slight drop to +35…+37°C is expected. By Thursday-Friday, temperatures will return to Monday's levels.
On Saturday and Sunday, a short-lived heatwave will return: up to +42°C in the south and +39°C elsewhere. Nighttime temperatures will range from +17°C to +25°C. In the mountains, nighttime lows will be +12°C, daytime highs up to +27°C.
Regarding precipitation, in the mountains short rains are expected almost daily during weekdays, and from Tuesday to Friday, brief summer rains may also occur in some areas of the valley regions. No precipitation is expected in other areas. On weekends, almost no rain is forecast across the republic.
Foreign weather model maps also show that precipitation will mainly fall in the mountains, Tashkent region, and valley areas. Particularly in the foothills of Fergana region near the Kyrgyz border, heavy short-term rainfall is possible on some days, increasing the risk of local mudflows.
In the north and plains, strong winds and occasional dusty conditions are expected during the week.
According to Uzgidromet and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), this week will be close to the long-term average, slightly cooler. Precipitation in the north and Kyzylkum desert is expected to be above normal due to expected rainfall.
Thus, in the middle of the week, hail and mudflows are expected in valley and mountain areas, and strong winds in deserts.
The weather conditions this week will not significantly affect people's health. On Tuesday in deserts, and on Wednesday-Thursday in other areas, a weak manifestation of a 'baric abyss' phenomenon may occur due to sharp changes in atmospheric pressure during air mass exchange. However, this is not a serious health risk. People sensitive to pressure changes are advised to follow recommendations from previous materials.
On Monday and weekends, the UV index may reach 10-11 on a 12-point scale in some areas, which is high. It is recommended to minimize outdoor activity and wear sunglasses when outside.
Bioclimatic conditions. The weekend heat will affect people's physiology mainly during the day. Nighttime temperatures are relatively comfortable, allowing the body to recover. Wind plays a major role: light night breezes can cool the body.
During weekdays, people will feel some discomfort from heat during the day. Nevertheless, for most of the day, the population will be in comfortable bioclimatic conditions.
Space weather. No strong M or X-class solar flares were observed on Sunday and Monday morning. However, there is a risk that plasma ejected from continuous disturbances on sunspots on Saturday could reach Earth's ionosphere. Therefore, forecasts of 'red' level geomagnetic storms are circulating for the beginning of the week.
The Russian Solar Astronomy Laboratory has also highlighted the risk of 'red' level magnetic storm disturbances of 5-7 points on Monday and Tuesday.
Currently, there are no reliable tools or methods to forecast magnetic storms beyond two days. Therefore, people sensitive to magnetic storms are advised to plan based on two-day forecasts.
Uzgidromet synoptics are focusing on strong winds in desert areas on Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday before the arrival of moist air masses. During these times, short-term dust lifting and slight air quality deterioration are expected in some areas.
If air pollution increases or fine particulate pollution occurs, it is advisable to familiarize oneself with the recommendations of the Sanitary-Epidemiological Committee for different age groups and patients.
Thus, from June 8 to 14, Uzbekistan will experience mostly comfortable summer weather. Weekdays will be relatively cool, while the weekend will bring a short heatwave. In mountainous and valley areas, the main weather hazards remain heavy rain and mudslides, while in desert areas, strong winds and short-term dusty conditions persist.
Source: www.gazeta.uz