Economist Mirkomil Kholboyev has calculated the average annual exchange rate of the US dollar against the Uzbek soum for 2026-2029 based on the government's macroeconomic projections. According to his estimates, the average rate in 2026 could be 11,987 soums, rising to 12,554 soums by 2029.

The calculations rely on the fiscal strategy parameters of the Ministry of Economy and Finance for 2027-2029. Kholboyev noted that the document suggests the soum exchange rate will remain relatively stable in the coming years.

The economist used forecasts for GDP in soums, GDP per capita in dollars, and population projections. Since official population forecasts have not been published, he assumed an annual growth rate of about 1.8%, consistent with 2025 levels.

Taking into account a population increase of 810,000 people from the census, the average rate in 2026 could be 11,987 soums, indicating a 4.4% strengthening compared to 2025.

In 2027, the soum is expected to depreciate by 1.2%, followed by 2.8% in 2028 and 1.5% in 2029. As a result, the average rate in 2029 would reach 12,554 soums.

Kholboyev emphasized that the forecast refers to the average annual rate, not the end-of-period rate. For example, although the dollar strengthened to 12,025 soums by the end of 2025, the average rate was 12,581 soums.

The sensitivity of the calculations to population projections was also assessed. If annual growth is 1.5% instead of 1.8%, the average rate in 2029 would be 12,704 soums — just 1.1% higher than the baseline.

It is worth recalling that the Ministry of Economy and Finance had forecast an average rate of 13,250 soums for 2025, but the actual figure turned out to be 12,576 soums.

Source: www.gazeta.uz