On 13 November, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan hosted a presentation of the International Monetary Fund’s Regional Economic Outlook report. Organized jointly by the Central Bank and the IMF, the event featured fund experts presenting conclusions on the economic prospects of the Caucasus and Central Asia, including Uzbekistan, inflation dynamics, and trade diversification under conditions of uncertainty. The discussion was intended to assess regional risks and identify practical priorities for strengthening external trade resilience.
Key Takeaways: The IMF and the Central Bank discussed Uzbekistan’s external trade vulnerabilities over the next three years and outlined three priorities: broadening the export mix, entering new markets, and expanding trade routes. IMF representatives stressed that better transport links, regional trade expansion, investment projects, and private-sector development should be pursued together. The report is also intended to help identify which indicators lag across countries and where policy attention is most needed.
The presentation took place amid persistent global uncertainty, supply-chain adjustments and growing regional interest in connectivity. For Caucasus and Central Asian economies, limited sea access, reliance on transit routes through neighboring states and narrow export baskets remain structural sources of vulnerability. The IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook is a periodic analytical publication used to compare macroeconomic trends, inflation pressures and external-sector risks; in this context, the Tashkent presentation offered a policy-oriented overview for Uzbekistan and its neighbors rather than a single set of binding recommendations.
During the question-and-answer session, Xurshid Nadirov, a senior specialist at the Central Bank’s International Cooperation Department, asked which direction Uzbekistan should prioritize over the next three years to reduce weaknesses in external trade. He noted the country’s dependence on transit routes through neighboring states and listed three areas: increasing the variety of export products, entering new markets and expanding trade routes.
Koba Gvenetadze, the IMF’s resident representative in Uzbekistan, said in response that improving transport links and expanding trade with regional partners should be pursued alongside investment projects. He also reminded participants that the Middle Corridor issue is being discussed in the region. “Firstly, developing transport links and expanding trade with regional partners always pays off. Implementing investment projects is extremely important. We know that the Middle Corridor issue is being discussed in the region. Secondly, it is necessary to develop the private sector. When the private sector leads economic growth, it finds both diversification paths and new markets. In my view, if work is carried out together in these two directions, damage from possible future shocks will be reduced. If positive shocks occur, the country will benefit more from them,” Gvenetadze said.
According to Florian Misch, among the discussed directions for regional trade diversification, export product diversity is the area lagging furthest behind. The report helps identify which indicators countries are lagging on, while the question of which direction should receive priority in economic policy is left open in that chapter. The next steps are likely to focus on practical measures for trade routes, transport infrastructure and private-sector support; further discussions may cover Middle Corridor projects, regional cooperation and efforts to broaden export structures.
Source: kun.uz