Gold is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset during times of war and crisis, yet its price has remained steady since the onset of the Iran war. While gold hit an all-time high of $5,417.60 per ounce on January 28, 2026, it has since stabilized within a range of $5,000-$5,200 after the conflict began on February 28. Michael Hsueh, head of Metals Research at Deutsche Bank, notes that gold prices tend to rise on average after crisis events, but individual cases show greater variation than the average suggests.
Carsten Fritsch, a commodities analyst at Commerzbank, observes that the uncertainty from the Iran war has not benefited the gold price, with it trading lower than pre-war levels. He attributes this to two key factors: first, gold is traded in US dollars, and a stronger dollar makes it more expensive for buyers using other currencies, reducing demand. Second, rising oil prices are driving up inflation, making it less likely for the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which diminishes gold's appeal as it does not pay interest compared to other investments.
Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Roßbach, managing director of Fragold GmbH, sees the sideways movement in gold prices as a market cooling-off period. He argues that the sharp price increase in the last quarter and January was disconnected from fundamental data and became exaggerated, negatively impacting demand. For instance, jewelry demand fell to its lowest level in 15 years in the fourth quarter of last year, and central banks were cautious due to high prices, purchasing only 230 tons of gold—the second-weakest fourth-quarter demand in five years.
The silver market is also experiencing activity, but experts hold divergent views. Wrzesniok-Roßbach believes silver prices are fundamentally supported and may stabilize at high levels due to global electrification, particularly solar power expansion. In contrast, Frank Schallenberger, a commodities expert at Landesbank Baden-Württemberg (LBBW), predicts weakening silver demand from a slowing solar industry and weak global economy, which could pressure prices.
Looking ahead, Fritsch suggests that if the war ends, a decline in the dollar and oil prices could support higher gold and silver prices, but this depends on how oil-driven inflation affects central bank responses. Schallenberger adds that gold will likely remain attractive as a safe-haven asset, though weak jewelry demand and central bank hesitancy may slow the recent price rally, with US policy continuing to be a source of uncertainty for financial markets.
Source: www.dw.com