US Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) and Representative Greg Casar (D-TX) announced plans to introduce the "BETS OFF Act," legislation that would prohibit wagering on "government actions, terrorism, war, assassination, and events where an individual knows or controls the outcome." The bill targets prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, which allow users to bet on real-world events, amid concerns over insider trading and ethical decay.

The move follows reports of suspicious betting activity ahead of recent geopolitical events, including the joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February and the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. According to the lawmakers, 150 new accounts appeared on Polymarket hours before the Iran attack, with 109 making over $10,000 and one profiting more than $500,000. A similar pattern was observed before the operation against Maduro, where a trader netted $400,000.

Senator Murphy allegedly claimed that these bets must have originated from the White House or individuals close to the administration, stating, "People inside the White House — or those close to the White House with knowledge of the attack that was imminent — cashed in." However, his office has not provided evidence to substantiate these claims, and the White House has denied involvement, with spokesperson Davis Ingle asserting that the Trump administration's decisions are guided solely by "the best interest of the American people."

The legislation also seeks to ban bets on controllable outcomes, such as award show results or presidential speeches, with Murphy arguing that prediction markets disproportionately benefit the powerful. "The people who benefit in these markets are always the powerful," he said. Casar added that while he is not opposed to gambling generally, the bill aims to ensure a "level playing field" and prevent markets from being "rigged" against ordinary users.

This proposal is part of a broader regulatory push against prediction markets in the US. Recently, Democratic Senators Richard Blumenthal, Jeff Merkley, and Amy Klobuchar have introduced separate bills to establish federal consumer protections, ban elected officials from profiting, and enforce age verification. Additionally, the state of Arizona filed criminal charges against Kalshi, citing violations of gambling laws, and Minnesota is considering an outright ban.

Critics highlight the anonymity of platforms like Polymarket, which raises alarms about potential insider trading by government officials. Murphy called for a comprehensive review, saying, "I hope we take a comprehensive look at the way that prediction markets are rigging our entire economy and government actions." Neither Kalshi nor Polymarket responded to requests for comment, underscoring the contentious nature of the industry.

Source: www.aljazeera.com