Water has evolved from a sectoral issue into a strategic resource at the intersection of economy, climate, geopolitics, and energy. At the Tashkent Water Week forum held in late March, experts discussed global trends and regional challenges facing Central Asian states. Mirshohid Aslanov, Executive Director of the Center for Progressive Reforms in Uzbekistan, emphasized that current water problems in the region urgently require a shift from outdated resource assessment methods to real-time monitoring systems.
Aslanov noted that the consequences of inefficient water use have already reached a global scale, with salt from the Aral Sea bed detected even at the North Pole. He highlighted that historical mistakes led to the near-disappearance of the Aral Sea, causing severe impacts on the economy, agriculture, and public health. Aslanov argued that this crisis gives Uzbekistan the right to share accumulated experience and new approaches with neighbors to address it.
Identifying resource management as a key issue for regional countries, including Afghanistan, Aslanov criticized that water distribution has long relied on approximate calculations. He pointed out insufficiently accurate volume assessments and inefficient management, stressing the need for a transparent approach based on real data. He also mentioned plans for widespread adoption of water-saving technologies in Uzbekistan, particularly drip irrigation on millions of hectares of agricultural land.
Regarding transboundary rivers, Aslanov supported Afghanistan's and other countries' rights to use shared water resources and expressed readiness to help them avoid past mistakes. He called for regional states to create a unified water resource management system with a common database, which would strengthen trust and serve economic growth.
Murad Uzakov, Head of the Regional Studies Center at the Institute for Strategic and Interregional Studies, listed key factors exacerbating the water crisis in his speech: demographic growth (population nearly doubled in the last 25 years), urbanization, outdated infrastructure causing water losses of up to 40-50%, and nearly 90% of water resources being used for irrigated agriculture. He estimated that inefficient water management results in annual economic losses of $2 billion for the region.
The impact of global warming is also a critical factor: temperatures in the region are rising faster than the global average, accelerating the melting of Pamir and Tien Shan glaciers, which have shrunk by one-third over the past 50 years. Projections suggest that by 2050, water flow in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins could decrease by 5-13%, leading to ecosystem changes, droughts, and weather anomalies. Uzakov warned that water scarcity and declining agricultural incomes could trigger internal climate migration.
To address the crisis, Uzakov proposed implementing water-saving technologies, training specialists, attracting private investment, and developing a regional strategy. As positive examples, he cited cooperation on the Naryn River, preparations for the Kambarata HPP-1 construction, and progress in relations with Afghanistan on the Qosh Tepa Canal.
Iskandar Abdullayev, Senior Scientist at the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) office for Central Asia, stressed the region's need to transition to a strict water economy. He urged countries to carefully monitor their "water footprint," adopt an intersectoral approach considering neighbors' interests, and develop "smart" agro- and biotechnologies.
Abdullayev noted that climate change is not just about water scarcity but growing uncertainty, making traditional planning obsolete. He criticized a purely technocratic approach as insufficient, emphasizing the need to value natural ecosystems' potential, implement digital management systems, and jointly develop ecological forecasts. Disconnect between academic circles and state structures, data shortages, and weak communication undermine decision-making quality, requiring a shift from reactive management to long-term planning.
Source: www.gazeta.uz