An independent French institute for marketing and sociological research conducted a poll for several French media outlets on voter preferences ahead of the 2027 presidential election. According to the data, if voting were held this Sunday, Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally party, would finish first in the first round.
“The first conclusion of this poll is extremely clear: after the appeal conviction for embezzlement of public funds in the case of European Parliament assistants from the National Front and the official announcement of her candidacy, Marine Le Pen would confidently take first place in the first round, garnering between 34% and 36% of the vote,” BFMTV reported, as cited by Interfax.
“No negative effect from her conviction was observed. On the contrary, her announcement of candidacy played a positive role. The event was the announcement, not the verdict,” explained Bruno Jeanbart, vice chairman of research firm OpinionWay, in a comment to Les Échos.
According to the survey, second place could go to Édouard Philippe, leader of the center-right Horizons party, former prime minister and mayor of Le Havre. Currently, only a few candidates seriously contend for the second round: Philippe, Gabriel Attal of the pro-presidential Renaissance party, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, founder of the far-left La France Insoumise.
The poll indicates Philippe could win 22% if he is the sole centrist candidate in the first round, i.e., if Attal does not run. If both participate, Philippe (18%) significantly outperforms Attal (7%). However, if Attal is the only centrist, he would get 16% and could reach the second round, slightly ahead of Mélenchon.
Mélenchon is projected to receive 13% to 15%, which researchers say is insufficient for the second round regardless of whether he faces one or several centrist candidates.
The French government announced in early July that the first round of the 2027 presidential election will be held on Sunday, April 18, and the second round on Sunday, May 2. Voting will conclude 12 days before the end of Emmanuel Macron's second presidential term, which expires on May 14.
Source: kun.uz