For over a decade, Libya has been split between two opposing governments. Elections, meant to end the rivalry and unite the country, are now scheduled within two years, thanks to mediation by the United Nations.
The two rival administrations in the west and east of Libya have agreed to hold parliamentary and presidential elections within the next two years. This is not the first attempt, but those involved hope it will finally work out. The UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) called the agreement "an important step in advancing Libya towards national elections and ending the transitional period."
Under the deal, the country's electoral commission will be restructured, and various points about the legal framework for elections that previously led to disagreements have reportedly been resolved. However, whether this will actually result in free and fair elections in Libya remains to be seen.
After former Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi was overthrown in 2011, Libya ended up divided in two. Since 2014, the country has been split between opposing governments in the east and west. A UN-backed administration known as the Government of National Unity is based in Tripoli in the west, while its rival, the House of Representatives, is based in Tobruk in the east.
Former warlord-turned-politician Khalifa Haftar is based in the east, while Prime Minister Abdul-Hamid Dbeibah is in charge in the west. Each is supported by local militias and foreign powers, and each has tried to wrest control from the other. Previous attempts to hold unifying elections have failed.
Andreas Dittmann, a geographic conflict expert and professor at the University of Giessen in Germany, sees the apparent unity as positive. "Things could not continue the way they were," he told DW. After years of civil war and political division, the desire of many Libyans to end the fighting permanently has grown, and Dittmann believes the attitudes of political actors have changed as well.
Previously, foreign actors supported just one Libyan government, but now the prevailing argument seems to be that Libya can only develop further if both sides are incorporated into one administration. The UN is trying to go beyond simply arranging a date for elections; it also wants to strengthen the electoral commission and work on electoral laws. The new united government will be responsible for establishing conditions for a secure and trusted electoral process.
The UN has also set up "Structured Dialogues" to seek consensus on leadership, security, economy, and reconciliation. Michael Bauer, who heads the Tunisia office of Germany's Konrad Adenauer Foundation, believes the agreement is an important but limited step. Its success will depend on how binding any decisions are, he argued, noting that many political agreements in Libya's recent past were never implemented.
Parallel to the UN process, the US is also trying to bring the disparate leadership together. Massad Boulos, the Trump administration's senior adviser on Arab and Middle Eastern affairs, has been trying to bring the Dbeibah and Haftar families together. In June, Haftar's son Saddam was in Washington, meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Bauer said the American approach differs from the UN plan. "While the UN mission has basically been very inclusive, in my opinion, the American mission is trying to bring about a kind of deal between the country's elites," he told DW. He questions how such a deal would fit into free and fair elections, stressing that "elections can only be meaningful if the outcome has not already been decided beforehand."
UK-based think tank Chatham House has warned that a deal around ministries and resources will only institutionalize the existing rivalry between Libya's ruling elites, allowing them to divide state resources and perpetuate corruption and patronage systems. The country's east-west division will be hard to overcome, and a new united government would have to deal with preexisting power structures rather than start anew.
Dittmann points to another problem: much of Libya's population lives in the western areas, especially Tripoli. If elections are held, the eastern half could lose power. "If there are elections, and if those elections proceed mostly according to democratic principles, then the east can really only lose," he explained.
External actors also play a role: Russia has extended its positioning in the east, while Turkey supports the government in the west. Alongside all that is the question of what Libyans want and expect from a united government. Bauer doubts elections alone can resolve Libya's problems. "The people have a particular interest in seeing the country's dysfunction end," he said.
Libya is rich in raw materials and energy reserves but plagued by power outages and inadequate public services. If the state functioned properly, it would likely curtail the power of those currently benefiting most from the country's resources. As Bauer asked, "Why would they voluntarily give up these opportunities?" That will be the most difficult question over the next two years.
The new agreement must do more than establish a path toward elections; it must create a framework in which rivals accept election results and public institutions function properly. Only then can Libya hope to move beyond its fractured past.
Source: www.dw.com