Stockholm, Sweden – On Sunday, Sweden will hold a knife-edge general election that could alter the country's stance on Israel. In 2014, Sweden became the first European Union member state to recognize Palestine, a decision that strained ties with Israel, with then-Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman remarking that Sweden failed to understand that Middle East relations are more complicated than assembling IKEA furniture.
Now, as Swedes head to the polls, the far-right Sweden Democrats, the Nordic nation's second-largest political party, want that recognition revoked. However, a Novus survey released on Monday suggested 50.3% support a left-wing coalition compared with 47.9% for the current right-wing government. The Israel-Palestine conflict has been embedded in the political landscape since Sweden's Count Folke Bernadotte, the UN's first mediator for Palestine, was assassinated in 1948 in Jerusalem by the Zionist paramilitary group Lehi, also known as the Stern Gang.
Forty years later, Sweden brokered talks in Stockholm between Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat and a delegation of prominent American Jews, leading to Washington's dialogue with the PLO. Sweden's politics are divided into two blocs. On the right: the governing Moderates, Christian Democrats, and Liberals, plus the Sweden Democrats, who have propped up the government from outside since 2022. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and Sweden Democrats leader Jimmie Akesson announced earlier this year that an election victory would see a four-party cabinet, with the Sweden Democrats promised significant portfolios.
On the left: the Social Democrats, the Left Party, and the Greens, with the Centre Party as a possible fourth. The current right-wing government does not regard Israel's conduct in Gaza as genocide and has not joined South Africa's genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ). The government suspended funding to UNRWA after Israel alleged that some staff participated in the October 7, 2023 attack, then resumed it and ended core funding in December 2024. In December 2025, the government allocated about $83 million for humanitarian response in Gaza for 2026, bypassing UNRWA.
When Israeli forces intercepted the Global Sumud Flotilla in international waters in October 2025 and arrested over 400 people, including Sweden's Greta Thunberg, the government acknowledged reports of Israeli abuse but said the group had "clear personal responsibility." Some MPs in the right-wing bloc appear to favor Israel. Christian Democrat MPs have filed motions calling for Jerusalem to be recognized as Israel's capital and the Swedish embassy moved there, for UNRWA's responsibilities to be transferred to UNHCR, and ultimately for UNRWA to be wound up entirely.
Party leader Ebba Busch was photographed around 2009 in the occupied Golan Heights wearing an Israeli army T-shirt. Alice Teodorescu Mawe, a Christian Democrat MEP, argued in October 2024 that applicants for Swedish citizenship should recognize Israel's right to exist and "embrace the Judeo-Christian values on which Swedish democracy rests." In August, she shared a clip from a pro-Israel media outlet questioning famine in Gaza, which an expert concluded was misleading.
However, the current government is not uniformly pro-Israel; it has pushed for EU sanctions against "extremist" settlers and proposed extra tariffs on settlement products. The Sweden Democrats, a party with neo-Nazi roots, if in government, would represent the most pro-Israel views in the bloc. Their motions call for moving the embassy to Jerusalem and ending all Swedish aid to Palestinians. Akesson said in January that recognition would absolutely be withdrawn if it were up to him, and he would raise it in coalition talks.
Political commentator Zina al-Dewany told Al Jazeera that recognition is a declaration that can be changed, and given the government's lack of "backbone" in standing up to the Sweden Democrats, it could be a possibility. If the Sweden Democrats join the government, they could theoretically end up in charge of foreign affairs, and since foreign policy is decided by the government, not parliament, it would not need a parliamentary vote.
The left, currently ahead in polls, is aligned on several key issues, including resumption of UNRWA funding. The Left Party and Green Party have called for Sweden to join South Africa's genocide case against Israel at the ICJ. Anfal Mahdi, an opposition councillor in Malmo, told Al Jazeera that her Left Party has been an outlier in explicit support of Palestine, while the Social Democrats have been fearful of adopting a clearer stance. "If the left bloc comes to power, you will see a trade boycott of Israel, more money to UNRWA, and we want more funding to the ICC," Mahdi said, referring to the International Criminal Court, which issued an arrest warrant for Israeli PM Netanyahu in 2024.
All parties have condemned the October 7 Hamas-led attacks on Israel and state that the armed group should hold no role in any future Palestinian government. The Social Democrats, Sweden's dominant party for a century, support elements of these issues but have erred on the side of caution, focusing more on targeted sanctions against Israeli officials and "extremist" settlers.
Source: www.aljazeera.com