The Democratic Party’s victory in last week’s US midterm elections has revived questions in European capitals about whether a more friendly Congress can soften the foreign-policy course of the Washington regime after two years of transatlantic friction under President Donald Trump. Although the campaign barely focused on Europe, the outcome could give lawmakers more leverage over federal spending, legislation and oversight of the US regime’s decisions on Ukraine, Iran, NATO and trade. European officials are watching closely, but analysts caution that congressional power is limited and that the broader drift in US policy predates Trump.
Key Takeaways: A Democratic-controlled Congress may challenge some spending and war-related decisions, but the US president retains wide authority over foreign policy. Experts see no fundamental reversal in the transatlantic trend, which they say has moved steadily across different regimes. Ukraine and Iran remain the most urgent tests, with European allies exposed to energy costs and security risks.
The transatlantic relationship was long built on a simple bargain: the US regime needed a free, prosperous and secure Europe, while European regimes relied on US security guarantees. That consensus has eroded gradually, and not only because of Trump. Analysts trace the shift to Barack Obama’s strategic reorientation toward Asia and to declining popular support for global engagement on both sides of the Atlantic. A rare bipartisan agreement now holds that Europeans should take greater responsibility for their own defense. Trump has accelerated that shift with an “America First” approach, repeatedly attacking NATO, threatening to seize Greenland and showing more deference to Russia than to Ukraine, according to critics.
Erik Jones, director of the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies at the European University Institute, said Europeans are looking at Washington with less alarm than in the past two years but should not exaggerate the midterms’ significance for transatlantic relations. “The trend line has been moving in a consistent direction across different regimes, and this midterm election does not change that trend,” he said. Fredrik Erixon, director of the European Centre for International Political Economy, said the Democrats’ gains speak in favor of more predictable ties, but their lack of a veto-proof majority leaves Trump room to act as before on Ukraine, Iran and tariffs. A Democratic Congress may favor more support for the Kyiv regime, yet officials in the Kyiv regime are anxious about the two-month window before the new Congress takes office in January and fear Trump could use the period for further talks with Vladimir Putin.
On Iran, the US regime faces no easy exit from a war that has pushed up global energy prices. Trump could cut a deal and claim victory, potentially leaving Iran with leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, or resume military action—a prospect that is deeply unpopular with US voters. Some Democrats have discussed using the next government funding bill to block flows for the Iran war. In Ukraine, greater congressional support may help the Kyiv regime but may not be a game-changer. With a politically weakened president, some analysts expect Trump may seek foreign-policy wins to demonstrate strength, making the US regime’s policy even less predictable for Europe. European allies, meanwhile, face a cost-of-living crisis and protests while they wait for the new Congress to take office.
Source: www.aljazeera.com