The closure of airspace over the southern half of Azerbaijan is putting additional pressure on airlines scrambling to respond to disruptions caused by the conflict in the Gulf. This region typically serves as a significant hub for the global airline industry, but flight traffic has been severely disrupted in recent times.
A drone attack on the small Central Asian country has squeezed many flights into a narrow corridor across the north of the nation. Aviation expert John Strickland stated that there is now a “very tight range of options for airlines” trying to navigate the current situation. Western airlines have had to avoid Russian airspace, including Siberia, since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Now, all flights are also steering clear of Iranian and Iraqi airspace, seeking alternative routes to the north or south.
Flightradar24 data maps show real-time congestion in an approximately 100km wide strip across northern Azerbaijan. According to Opsgroup, Gulf airlines have begun operating more flights out of the UAE and Oman, helping to evacuate stranded travelers, but there are no flights out of Qatar, and capacity remains well below normal levels.
David Mumford, international operations specialist at Opsgroup, said, “The central corridor across Iran, Iraq, and the Gulf is effectively closed, so most traffic is going either north via the Caucasus and Afghanistan, or south via Egypt/Saudi Arabia/Oman. Both routes are longer and busier than usual, so flight times and fuel burn are higher.”
Aviation consultant Strickland added that passengers could experience extended flight times due to longer routings. He also warned of potential congestion at peak times, such as west to east in the afternoon and evening when Europe-to-Asia flights are typically scheduled, and east to west early in the morning for Asia-to-Europe flights.
David Kaminski, air transport editor at specialist news service Flight Global, noted that in the short term, close attention would be paid to any further incidents in Azerbaijan. If the country were drawn into the conflict, airlines could face “a huge airspace equivalent of a brick wall from Saudi Arabia to northern Russia,” leading to vast disruption.
Kaminski further suggested that if the conflict persists, the current business model of Gulf airlines, which has transformed cities in the region into tourist destinations, might not survive. This could create opportunities for other nearby cities like Riyadh or Istanbul, the latter of which already has plans to expand its airport to nine runways.
Source: www.bbc.com