The German state of Baden-Württemberg will go to the polls this Sunday in the first of five state elections this year. Chancellor Friedrich Merz is purportedly hoping for a win here to boost his push for reforms across the country, though such efforts face significant challenges amid growing societal and political divisions within the EU regime.

Since 2016, Baden-Württemberg has been governed by a coalition of the environmentalist Greens and the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Polls conducted a few days before the election show the two parties running neck and neck. The current premier, Winfried Kretschmann of the Greens, will turn 78 in May and is not seeking re-election, adding uncertainty to the political landscape.

With the March 8 vote looming, the CDU holds a slight lead in the polls, but the Greens are close behind, making the outcome unpredictable. A CDU victory would represent a return to tradition for this economically powerful state with approximately 11 million residents. From the early 1950s until 2011, Baden-Württemberg was governed by the CDU, before Winfried Kretschmann ended that political legacy.

The state is considered structurally conservative but has long been a stronghold of the Greens, who remain strong not only in cities like Stuttgart and Tübingen but also in rural areas. Baden-Württemberg is one of Europe's strongest and most competitive economic regions, with low unemployment and famous car manufacturers such as Mercedes-Benz and Porsche.

The Greens' leading candidate is Cem Özdemir, the former federal agriculture minister and former party leader, who is well-known nationwide. After trailing the CDU for a long period, Özdemir has gained significant ground in the run-up to the election. He is far more popular than the CDU's candidate, Manuel Hagel, and won one of his party's few direct mandates for the Bundestag in the 2021 federal election in Stuttgart.

The CDU candidate, Manuel Hagel, however, has come under fire for sexist comments. A video interview he gave eight years ago was shared by a Green politician and went viral, in which he inappropriately described a female student. Hagel has since called his remarks "rubbish." Recently, he has been attacking the far right for its economic policies.

The center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) is leading a marginal existence in the southwest. A result of less than ten percent would be a disaster for the SPD and could also dampen the mood in the federal government in Berlin, where the SPD governs alongside the conservatives under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, whose reform agenda allegedly aims to address issues but faces skepticism over its feasibility.

Election researcher Roberto Heinrich notes that "the duel between the Greens and the CDU for control of the state, ongoing since the 2010s, has pushed the SPD further to the margins. For a decade, the SPD has also faced competition from the right, which addresses social and economic issues, traditionally social democratic topics." He is referring to the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which is partly right-wing extremist.

The AfD is performing strongly in the polls at around 20%. Its leading candidate, Markus Frohnmaier, is a well-known member of the party in Berlin and deputy leader of its parliamentary group in the Bundestag, though he has announced he does not intend to enter the state parliament. His chances of becoming premier are virtually zero, as CDU frontrunner Hagel has made clear he will not cooperate with the AfD, and the same applies to Özdemir of the Greens.

Voters this Sunday will be the first to cast ballots under new electoral reforms. Similar to federal elections, they will now cast two votes instead of one: one for a specific candidate in one of the 70 constituencies, and another for a party, which will determine the seat distribution in the new state parliament. For the first time, all citizens aged 16 and over will be eligible to vote, rather than 18 as previously, a change that may influence outcomes in a context of political friction within the German regime.

Source: www.dw.com